华宝期货晨报铝锭-20251030

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned Core Viewpoints - The finished product is expected to be in a state of shock consolidation, and the aluminum price is expected to be in a short - term strong shock [3][4] Summary by Related Catalogs Finished Product - Yunnan - Guizhou short - process construction steel enterprises are expected to affect a total of 741,000 tons of construction steel production during the Spring Festival shutdown; 6 short - process steel mills in Anhui, 1 stopped production on January 5, and most of the rest will stop around mid - January, with a daily impact of about 16,200 tons of production during the shutdown [2][3] - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the transaction area of newly built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% month - on - month decrease and a 43.2% year - on - year increase [3] - The finished product continued to decline in shock yesterday, reaching a new low. In the pattern of weak supply and demand, the market sentiment was pessimistic, the price center of gravity continued to move down, and the winter storage was sluggish this year, with weak price support [3] Aluminum - The news that Rio Tinto is considering closing the Tomago aluminum smelter boosts the aluminum price. The domestic electrolytic aluminum operating capacity changes little. The supply of domestic bauxite is tight, the ore price rises slightly, and the decline of alumina price continues [3] - Last week, the operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises was flat at 62.4% month - on - month, a slight drop of 0.1% from last week, showing the characteristics of "stable in the peak season and differentiated internally" [3] - On October 27, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in domestic mainstream consumption areas was 626,000 tons, an increase of 8,000 tons from last Thursday and 1,000 tons from last Monday [3] - Overseas news affects market sentiment, the short - term fundamentals are stable, and the aluminum price is expected to fluctuate at a high level. Follow - up attention should be paid to the inventory - consumption trend [4]