中美关系预期改善，铜价再度领涨基本金属

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The improvement in Sino-US relations and the release of the 15th Five-Year Plan have led to a further improvement in the macro outlook. In the short to medium term, supply disruptions and improved macro expectations are driving the rise of base metals, with copper leading the way. In the long term, potential stimulus policies in China and supply disruptions in copper, aluminum, and tin are expected to drive up prices [2]. - Copper prices are expected to be strong due to the restart of Sino-US trade negotiations and the easing of trade tensions. Aluminum prices are expected to rise due to overseas supply disruptions and a relatively low valuation compared to copper. Zinc prices are expected to decline in the long term due to an increase in supply and limited demand growth [2][8][14][19]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Copper - View: Copper prices are trending strongly due to the restart of Sino-US trade negotiations [8]. - Logic: The release of the 15th Five-Year Plan and the restart of Sino-US trade negotiations have improved market sentiment. Supply disruptions in copper mines and a decline in electrolytic copper production have also supported prices. However, high prices have limited demand, and inventory changes need to be monitored [8][9]. - Outlook: Copper prices are expected to be strongly volatile in the medium term [9]. 3.2 Alumina - View: Alumina prices are rebounding due to increased anti-involution sentiment [9]. - Logic: High-cost production capacity has fluctuated, but the overall production capacity has increased slightly. Domestic inventory has continued to accumulate, and ore prices have weakened. However, the low valuation has attracted more investors, increasing the possibility of price fluctuations [12]. - Outlook: Alumina prices are expected to remain volatile due to an oversupply in the short term and a low valuation [12]. 3.3 Aluminum - View: Aluminum prices are rising due to continuous overseas supply disruptions [14]. - Logic: The overseas interest rate cut expectation and the release of the 15th Five-Year Plan have improved market sentiment. Although domestic production capacity has increased, overseas supply disruptions have tightened the long-term supply outlook. Demand has remained stable, and inventory depletion has slowed down. The high copper-aluminum ratio has also supported aluminum prices [14][15]. - Outlook: Aluminum prices are expected to rise in the short term and continue to increase in the medium term due to limited supply growth and resilient demand [15]. 3.4 Aluminum Alloy - View: Aluminum alloy prices are oscillating at a high level due to an increase in warehouse receipts [16]. - Logic: The tight supply of scrap aluminum has supported costs. Uncertain policies and weak demand have led to a slight reduction in production, but the overall impact is limited. Demand has shown marginal improvement, and inventory has continued to increase [16]. - Outlook: Aluminum alloy prices are expected to remain volatile in the short term due to strong cost support and weak supply-demand improvement. In the medium term, prices are expected to remain volatile due to uncertain policy implementation and potential raw material disruptions [16][18]. 3.5 Zinc - View: Zinc prices are expected to decline in the long term due to an increase in supply and limited demand growth [19]. - Logic: The easing of Sino-US economic and trade relations and the clarity of the 15th Five-Year Plan have led to the realization of macro optimism. In the short term, zinc ore supply has become looser, and smelter profitability has improved, leading to strong production willingness. However, domestic consumption has entered the off-season, and demand is expected to be average. Although the "soft squeeze" of LME zinc has not ended, zinc prices are expected to decline in the long term [19]. - Outlook: Zinc prices are expected to remain volatile in the short term and decline in the long term due to an increase in supply and limited demand growth [19]. 3.6 Lead - View: Lead prices are expected to remain strongly volatile due to a high virtual-to-physical ratio in the SHFE 2512 contract [21]. - Logic: The spot premium has slightly decreased, and the original-to-recycled lead price difference has remained stable. The supply of waste batteries has remained stable, and the profitability of recycled lead smelters has slightly narrowed. However, the resumption of production by previously shut-down smelters has increased production. Demand has remained strong during the peak season, and lead-acid battery factories have maintained a high operating rate [21]. - Outlook: Lead prices are expected to remain strongly volatile due to a tight supply-demand balance, high costs, and a weak US dollar [21][22]. 3.7 Nickel - View: Nickel prices are oscillating due to an increase in inventory [23]. - Logic: Market sentiment is still dominating the market, and the static valuation is stable. The supply of nickel mines is relatively loose, and the production of intermediate products has recovered. Nickel salt prices have slightly declined, and the profitability of salt factories has improved slightly. However, the oversupply of electrolytic nickel and the large inventory have put pressure on prices [24]. - Outlook: Nickel prices are expected to remain volatile in the short term due to an increase in inventory [24]. 3.8 Stainless Steel - View: Stainless steel prices have slightly increased due to a decrease in warehouse receipts [25]. - Logic: Nickel iron prices have weakened, while chromium prices have remained stable. Stainless steel production has increased in September due to higher steel prices and seasonal demand. However, the demand outlook is uncertain, and inventory depletion has slowed down [25]. - Outlook: Stainless steel prices are expected to remain volatile in the short term due to a decrease in warehouse receipts and a slight increase in prices [25]. 3.9 Tin - View: Tin prices are oscillating at a high level due to positive macro expectations [27]. - Logic: Supply constraints in the tin market have strengthened the bottom support for prices. Production delays in Wa State and a change in the RKAB approval system in Indonesia have tightened the supply outlook. However, the resumption of production by Yunxi has increased the supply of refined tin, and inventory has started to accumulate, limiting the upside potential of prices [27]. - Outlook: Tin prices are expected to be strongly volatile due to continuous supply disruptions [28].