中原期货晨会纪要-20251030

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report presents the latest prices, price changes, and percentage changes of various domestic chemical and agricultural product futures on October 30, 2025, compared to October 29, 2025. It also covers significant macro - events such as the Sino - US leaders' meeting and the Fed's interest rate cut, and provides morning meeting views on major futures varieties, including analysis of supply - demand fundamentals, price trends, and trading strategies [4][6][11]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Futures Price Changes - Chemical Products: On October 30, 2025, among chemical products, crude oil rose 0.54% to 465.10, PVC rose 0.817% to 4,814.00, while glass fell 1.331% to 1,112.00, and 20 - number rubber fell 0.590% to 12,645.00 [4]. - Agricultural Products: Among agricultural products, yellow soybean No. 2 rose 0.327% to 3,683.00, and cotton yarn rose 0.378% to 19,940.00, while palm oil fell 0.181% to 8,826.00, and yellow soybean No. 1 fell 0.146% to 4,107.00 [4]. 2. Macro - news - Sino - US Relations: Chinese President Xi Jinping will meet with US President Trump in Busan, South Korea on October 30, 2025, to exchange views on Sino - US relations and common concerns [6]. - Fed's Interest Rate Cut: The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points to 3.75% - 4.00% on October 30, 2025, and will end balance - sheet reduction from December 1. There are significant differences within the Fed on future policies, which has affected the financial markets [6]. - Corporate News: NVIDIA's market value exceeded $5 trillion, and Bank of America Global Research raised its target price [7]. - Domestic Policies: China is further deepening capital market reform and opening up the financial sector. The State Administration of Foreign Exchange launched 9 policy measures to facilitate cross - border trade, and relevant departments issued action plans for urban commercial improvement [7]. 3. Morning Meeting Views on Major Varieties 3.1 Agricultural Products - Peanuts: On October 29, peanut futures closed slightly up, showing a narrow - range oscillation. The spot market has a situation of weak supply and demand. It is expected that the futures price will oscillate between 7,700 - 7,900, and it is recommended to wait and see [11]. - Sugar: On October 29, sugar futures showed a low - level rebound but were restricted by the 5,500 resistance level. The supply side has pressure, and the demand side is weak. It is recommended to operate with an oscillation mindset in the 5,450 - 5,520 range [11]. - Corn: On October 29, corn futures showed a narrow - range oscillation. The spot market has a slightly premium structure, with a loose supply situation. It is recommended to short at high prices and focus on the 2,100 support level [11]. - Pigs: The national average price of live pigs rose slightly. The supply pressure has eased, and the demand has increased. The futures market shows different trends in the near and far months, and it is expected to remain weak [11]. - Eggs: The spot price of eggs was stable with a slight decline. The futures market showed a low - level rebound, reflecting the market's expectation of the Double Eleven holiday. It is recommended to short in the short - term and conduct inter - month reverse spreads [11]. - Cotton: On October 29, cotton futures showed an upward oscillation. The supply is expected to be loose, and the demand is weak. It is expected to oscillate between 13,500 - 13,700 yuan/ton [11]. 3.2 Energy and Chemicals - Urea: The domestic urea market price is weakly stable. The supply pressure is expected to increase, and the demand has not improved significantly. The futures price will continue to be sorted at a low level [12]. - Caustic Soda: The market expectation is weak, and the caustic soda 2601 contract is under pressure. Attention should be paid to the performance of the lower support [12]. - Coking Coal and Coke: The price of coking coal has increased, and coke has started the third round of price increases. With the support of downstream demand, the double - coking market is strong and oscillating upward [12]. - Pulp: On October 29, pulp futures showed a narrow - range oscillation. The supply is loose, and the demand is weak. It is expected to oscillate at the bottom, and attention should be paid to the breakthrough direction of the 5,150 - 5,300 range [12]. 3.3 Industrial Metals - Copper and Aluminum: Supported by macro and supply - demand factors, copper and aluminum prices remain high, but attention should be paid to macro risks [15]. - Alumina: The alumina market is in an oversupply situation, and the 2601 contract is running at a low level. Attention should be paid to the interference of factors such as bauxite [15]. - Rebar and Hot - rolled Coil: The spot market trading of rebar and hot - rolled coil has warmed up, and the fundamentals are improving. With the boost of macro factors, the steel price is expected to continue to oscillate upward [15]. - Ferroalloys: The ferroalloy market follows the upward trend of double - coking, but the supply - demand fundamentals are weak. It is expected to oscillate widely [17]. - Lithium Carbonate: On October 29, the lithium carbonate futures price showed an upward oscillation. The demand is strong, and the price is expected to be strong in the short - term, but attention should be paid to the pressure from mine restart and warrant cancellation [17]. 3.4 Options and Finance - Stock Index Futures and Options: On October 29, the A - share market rose, and different stock index futures and options had different performance in terms of position, volume, and basis. It is recommended that trend investors pay attention to the strength - weakness arbitrage opportunities, and volatility investors consider buying straddles or wide straddles after the volatility decline [17]. - Stock Market: The A - share market showed a strong performance on October 29. After the Sino - US negotiation at the end of October, if there are no further negative factors, the market may break through the oscillation range. It is recommended to allocate stock index futures contracts during intraday pullbacks to avoid missing the market [18].