宁证期货今日早评-20251030

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the content. 2. Core Views - The overall supply - demand situation still suppresses oil prices, and the short - term market is weighing the impact of US sanctions on Russian oil companies and OPEC+ production plans [1]. - The upcoming Sino - US summit may lead to a continuous decline in risk aversion, but gold buying power remains strong, and gold may oscillate at a high level in the medium term [1]. - PTA has weak upward momentum due to weakening supply - demand expectations and crude oil adjustments [3]. - Rubber has a low - position bullish outlook as Chinese rubber inventories continue to decline and macro - pressure eases [3]. - The hog futures price has rebounded, with short - term support but limited upward momentum, and breeders should hedge according to the slaughter rhythm [4]. - Palm oil is under pressure and expected to run weakly in the short term due to increased supply expectations and loose domestic supply [4]. - Soybean No. 2 may oscillate strongly in the short term, and Soybean No. 1 will run stably with an oscillating trend [5]. - The bond market has increased bullish factors but is difficult to operate, with a medium - term slightly bullish oscillating trend [5]. - Silver is bullish in the long - term, oscillating in the short - term, and there are opportunities to go long [6]. - Methanol's 01 contract is expected to oscillate in the short term, and it is recommended to go long on the short - term [6]. - Soda ash's 01 contract is expected to oscillate in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see or go long on the callback [7]. - L2601 contract of plastic is expected to oscillate slightly strongly in the short term, and it is recommended to go long on the short - term [8]. 3. Summary by Commodity Crude Oil - EIA report on October 24: commercial crude oil inventory decreased by 6.858 million barrels to 416 million barrels (a 1.62% decline), gasoline inventory decreased by 5.941 million barrels, and US domestic crude oil production increased by 15,000 barrels to 1.3644 million barrels per day. Western Russian port exports are expected to be about 2.33 million barrels per day in October [1]. - US crude oil inventory decline and optimistic trade talk prospects led to rising international oil prices, but supply - demand still suppresses prices [1]. Gold - Sino - US summit is scheduled for October 30. Risk aversion may decline, but gold buying power is strong. Gold may oscillate at a high level in the medium term [1]. PTA - PTA social inventory is 3.1413 million tons, a decrease of 50,300 tons from the previous period. PTA capacity utilization is 75.98%, and polyester comprehensive capacity utilization is around 87.51% [3]. - Polyester has low inventory and stable demand, but PTA has weak upward momentum due to new device commissioning and expected supply - demand weakening [3]. Rubber - Thai raw material glue prices: 55.5 Thai baht per kilogram for glue and 53.25 Thai baht per kilogram for cup - rubber. Chinese natural rubber social inventory is 1.0389 million tons, a 1% decline [3]. - Chinese rubber inventory decline and reduced macro - pressure support a low - position bullish view [3]. Hog - On October 29, the national average pork price was 18.03 yuan per kilogram, unchanged; egg price was 7.37 yuan per kilogram, a 0.3% decline [4]. - Hog prices showed a north - weak and south - strong pattern. Futures prices rebounded with short - term support but limited upward power [4]. Palm Oil - Pakistan is considering increasing Indonesian palm oil import quotas. In September 2025, Pakistan's palm oil import value reached $481 million, a significant increase from $251 million last year [4]. - GAPKI expects a 10% increase in Indonesian palm oil production in 2025, suppressing prices. Domestic supply is loose, and palm oil is under pressure in the short term [4]. Soybean - Rabobank expects Brazil's 2025/26 soybean production to be 177 million tons (a 3% increase), export volume to be 111 million tons (basically unchanged), and planting area to reach 48.8 million hectares (a 2% increase) [5]. - Soybean No. 2 may oscillate strongly in the short term, and Soybean No. 1 will run stably with an oscillating trend [5]. Short - term Treasury Bond - Shibor short - end varieties declined. Overnight decreased by 5.5 BP to 1.414%, 7 - day by 1.8 BP to 1.512%, 14 - day by 8.8 BP to 1.559%, and 1 - month by 0.1 BP to 1.556% [5]. - Loose funds are beneficial to the bond market, but it is difficult to operate, with a medium - term slightly bullish oscillating trend [5]. Silver - The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points to 3.75% - 4.00% and will end balance - sheet reduction on December 1. Powell said further December rate cuts are not certain [6]. - Rate cuts increase risk appetite, making silver bullish in the long - term and oscillating in the short - term with limited downside [6]. Methanol - Jiangsu Taicang methanol price is 2210 yuan per ton, an increase of 3 yuan per ton. Domestic methanol weekly capacity utilization is 87.4% (a 2.13% decline), and downstream total capacity utilization is 75.11% (a 1.53% decline) [6]. - Methanol's 01 contract is expected to oscillate in the short term, with support at 2240. It is recommended to go long on the short - term [6]. Soda Ash - National heavy - duty soda ash mainstream price is 1275 yuan per ton. Weekly production is 740,500 tons (a 3.93% decline), and factory inventory is 1.7021 million tons (a 0.09% increase) [7]. - Soda ash's 01 contract is expected to oscillate in the short term, with support at 1240. It is recommended to wait and see or go long on the callback [7]. Plastic - North China LLDPE mainstream price is 7085 yuan per ton, a decrease of 9 yuan per ton. LLDPE weekly production is 309,100 tons (a 0.17% increase), and production enterprise inventory is 139,200 tons (a 27.65% decline) [8]. - L2601 contract is expected to oscillate slightly strongly in the short term, with support at 6980. It is recommended to go long on the short - term [8].