申银万国期货首席点评：美联储如期降息25个基点

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The Federal Reserve cut the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 3.75%-4.00%, and announced to end balance sheet reduction on December 1st. The market had largely priced in these moves, and Fed Chair Powell's post - meeting remarks were hawkish, suggesting that a December rate cut is not guaranteed [1][2][7]. - Against the backdrop of the US fiscal deficit, deteriorating debt situation, and increased global confrontation, central banks around the world are continuously increasing their gold holdings. However, due to the weakening of driving factors, precious metals have experienced continuous adjustments after a rapid rise [2][19]. - The domestic stock market showed an upward trend, with the Shanghai Composite Index breaking through 4000 points. With the expected continuation of a loose domestic liquidity environment and the potential inflow of external funds, the stock market is expected to continue its upward trend in the short term [3][11]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1当日主要新闻关注 - International News: The Federal Reserve cut the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to 3.75%-4.00% and will end balance sheet reduction on December 1st. Inflation remains high, and the risk of employment decline has increased. Powell said a December rate cut is not certain [1][7]. - Domestic News: Chinese President Xi Jinping will meet with US President Trump in Busan, South Korea on October 30th to exchange views on China - US relations and common concerns [8]. - Industry News: The Reserve Bank of India has repatriated nearly 64 tons of gold reserves in the first six months of the current fiscal year, and the proportion of domestic gold reserves has nearly doubled compared to four years ago [9]. 3.2外盘每日收益情况 - Different overseas market varieties showed various trends. For example, the S&P 500 was almost flat, the FTSE China A50 futures rose 0.45%, ICE Brent crude oil rose 0.68%, and London gold fell 0.56% [10]. 3.3主要品种早盘评论 - Financial: - Stock Index: The Fed's rate cut and the expected loose domestic liquidity environment are conducive to the inflow of funds into the stock market. The market style may shift towards value and become more balanced. The stock index is expected to continue rising in the short term [3][11]. - Treasury Bonds: Short - term treasury bond futures prices are supported by the central bank's monetary policy and the expected reasonable and sufficient market liquidity. However, the hawkish remarks on the December rate cut by Powell have led to a rise in US bond yields [12][13]. - Energy and Chemicals: - Crude Oil: Although geopolitical tensions have pushed up oil prices, the overall downward trend is difficult to reverse due to limited impact on Russian oil transportation and unclear market trends [14]. - Methanol: The operating load of domestic coal - to - olefin and methanol plants has declined. Coastal methanol inventories have increased slightly, and the market is volatile due to various uncertainties [15]. - Rubber: Supply pressure may increase as the rubber - tapping season progresses, but short - term trends are expected to be strong due to expected smooth progress in China - US trade negotiations and the Fed's rate cut [16]. - Polyolefins: Polyolefin futures rebounded slightly. The supply - demand pressure is temporarily limited, and the market may start to fluctuate after a short - term rebound [17]. - Glass and Soda Ash: Both glass and soda ash futures showed a rebound, but glass futures fell at night. The domestic market is in a process of inventory digestion, and the focus is on autumn consumption and policy changes [18]. - Metals: - Precious Metals: Precious metals have been adjusting after the Fed's rate cut. Although the long - term narrative of gold as a safe - haven asset is strengthening, short - term driving factors have weakened, leading to price adjustments [2][19]. - Copper: The copper price rose at night. The supply of concentrates is tight, and the Indonesian mine accident may lead to a supply - demand gap, providing long - term support for the copper price [20]. - Zinc: The zinc price rose slightly at night. The processing fee of zinc concentrates has rebounded, and the supply - demand difference is not obvious. The domestic zinc price may be weaker than the overseas price [21]. - Black Metals: - Coking Coal and Coke: The coking coal and coke futures oscillated at a high level at night. The production of five major steel products increased slightly, and the demand for coking coal and coke is supported. The market is expected to be strong in the short term [22][23]. - Agricultural Products: - Protein Meal: The bean and rapeseed meal futures oscillated and rose at night. The sowing of new - season soybeans in Brazil is progressing smoothly, and the export prospects of US soybeans have improved. The domestic market is expected to oscillate in the short term [24]. - Oils and Fats: The palm oil futures showed a weak trend at night. The expected increase in palm oil inventory and supply - side pressure are suppressing the short - term market [25]. - Sugar: The international sugar market is in a stock - building stage, and the sugar price is expected to decline. The domestic sugar price is affected by import profits but may be supported by the upcoming new - season crushing [26]. - Cotton: The cotton futures continued to oscillate strongly. The new - cotton purchase is in full swing, and the short - term market is expected to remain strong [27]. - Shipping Index: - Container Shipping to Europe: The EC index oscillated strongly. Some shipping companies have adjusted their freight rates downward. The market is in the traditional peak - season price - holding period, and there may be room for price increases [28].