20251030申万期货有色金属基差日报-20251030

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - Copper prices may be on the strong side, and zinc prices may fluctuate within a range [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Copper - Night - time copper prices rose 0.47%, and the Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected. Concentrate supply remains tight, and smelting profits are at the break - even point, but smelting output continues to grow rapidly. Grid investment shows positive growth, power source investment slows down, automobile production and sales are growing, home appliance production schedules are in negative growth, and the real estate market remains weak. The Indonesian mine accident is likely to turn the global copper supply - demand situation into a deficit, supporting copper prices in the long term. Attention should be paid to changes in the US dollar, copper smelting output, and downstream demand [2]. Zinc - Night - time zinc prices rose 0.11%, and the Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected. Zinc concentrate processing fees have generally increased, smelting profits have turned positive, and smelting output is expected to continue to rise. Galvanized sheet inventories increased weekly. Infrastructure investment growth has slowed down, automobile production and sales are growing, home appliance production schedules are in negative growth, and the real estate market remains weak. Due to different inventory situations at home and abroad, domestic zinc prices may be weaker than foreign ones. Overall, zinc supply - demand differences are not obvious, and prices may fluctuate within a range. Attention should be paid to changes in the US dollar, smelting output, and downstream demand [2]. Market Data - Domestic Futures and Basis: Copper's previous closing price was 88,680 yuan/ton with a basis of - 65 yuan/ton; aluminum was 21,270 yuan/ton with a basis of - 30 yuan/ton; zinc was 22,380 yuan/ton with a basis of - 85 yuan/ton; nickel was 121,250 yuan/ton with a basis of - 1,520 yuan/ton; lead was 17,370 yuan/ton with a basis of - 210 yuan/ton; tin was 286,170 yuan/ton with a basis of - 470 yuan/ton [2]. - LME Data: For copper, the previous LME 3 - month closing price was 11,090 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium was - 19.66 dollars/ton, and the inventory was 134,575 tons with a daily change of - 1,400 tons; for aluminum, it was 2,870 dollars/ton, - 0.99 dollars/ton, 465,650 tons, and - 3,625 tons respectively; for zinc, 3,070 dollars/ton, 132.96 dollars/ton, 35,250 tons, and - 1,800 tons; for nickel, 15,405 dollars/ton, - 203.99 dollars/ton, 251,436 tons, and 198 tons; for lead, 2,019 dollars/ton, - 35.12 dollars/ton, 229,675 tons, and - 2,700 tons; for tin, 36,105 dollars/ton, 10.02 dollars/ton, 2,700 tons, and - 25 tons [2].