有色金属行业：供需结构改善或持续优化金属行业盈利能力及估值水平

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the non-ferrous metals industry, indicating a "look good" investment rating, suggesting that the industry is expected to outperform the market benchmark by more than 5% in the next six months [7]. Core Insights - The non-ferrous metals industry is expected to see improvements in profitability and valuation levels due to a favorable supply-demand structure, driven by high-quality green development paths outlined in the recent government planning documents [1][13]. - The supply side will focus on the protection and stable growth of strategic minerals, with an emphasis on maintaining low-speed, high-quality growth in production [2][14]. - Demand for non-ferrous metals is anticipated to expand rapidly, benefiting from the development of new productive forces and industries, particularly in green low-carbon energy and new material sectors [9][53]. Supply Side Summary - The government has issued guidelines for the protection of strategic minerals and the control of production capacity, emphasizing the importance of resource security and the need for stable growth in non-ferrous metal output [2][14]. - Strategic mineral protection is crucial due to China's low reserves and high dependence on foreign sources, with plans to enhance domestic resource exploration and development [16][15]. - The production of ten major non-ferrous metals is projected to grow at a rate of 4.3% in 2024, with a target of approximately 1.5% annual growth for 2025-2026, indicating a significant reduction in supply growth compared to previous years [3][18]. Demand Side Summary - The development of downstream industries is expected to drive significant demand for non-ferrous metals, particularly in sectors such as new energy vehicles, renewable energy, and advanced manufacturing [9][53]. - Emerging demands for copper are projected to increase significantly, with a compound annual growth rate of 16% for copper used in new energy vehicles from 2025 to 2030 [9][53]. - The redefinition of export rules for high-quality resources aims to enhance China's global pricing power in rare metals, with significant implications for the industry [10][22]. Future Industry Developments - The report highlights the importance of green production and the optimization of recycled metal proportions, with a target for recycled metals to account for over 4.4% growth in production by 2025-2026 [19]. - The promotion of high-end materials and innovation in manufacturing is emphasized, with plans to establish numerous pilot platforms for new materials by 2027 [20][21].