Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Report's Core View - The macro - policy is favorable for the metal sector, leading to a slight rebound in nickel and stainless steel. The supply of nickel is in an oversupply pattern with high inventory, so the nickel price is expected to remain in low - level oscillation. The demand for stainless steel grows weakly and the cost support weakens, and its price is expected to maintain an interval oscillation trend [1][4][6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel Variety - Market Analysis - On October 29, 2025, the main contract 2512 of Shanghai nickel opened at 120,760 yuan/ton and closed at 121,540 yuan/ton, a 0.34% change from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 109,262 (-47,034) lots, and the open interest was 109,686 (-5,360) lots. The main contract of Shanghai nickel showed a volatile and slightly stronger trend due to the positive macro - policy expectations [2]. - In the nickel ore market, recent transactions have occurred. Indonesia's CIF tender for 1.4% nickel ore from the Philippines was settled at 49.5 - 50.5, down 1 dollar month - on - month. The FOB tender price of 1.4% nickel ore from domestic northern mines is expected to be around 43. The shipping season in the Surigao mining area in the Philippines is coming to an end, and northern mines are in the tender and shipping stage. The price of downstream nickel - iron is under pressure, and iron plants are reluctant to accept high - priced nickel ore. In Indonesia, the domestic trade benchmark price in November (Phase I) is expected to drop by 0.12 - 0.18 dollars, and the current mainstream premium is +26, with the premium range mostly between +25 - 27 [2]. - The sales price of Jinchuan Group in the Shanghai market was 123,100 yuan/ton, down 500 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. Spot transactions were mainly in a wait - and - see mode, and the spot premiums of various brands increased slightly. The premium of Jinchuan nickel changed by 100 yuan/ton to 2,400 yuan/ton, the premium of imported nickel remained unchanged at 400 yuan/ton, and the premium of nickel beans was 2,450 yuan/ton. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warehouse receipts were 31,433 (48) tons, and the LME nickel inventory was 251,706 (270) tons [3]. - Strategy - The supply surplus pattern remains unchanged, and the inventory remains high. It is expected that the nickel price will remain in low - level oscillation. The strategy is mainly range operation for the single - side, and there are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [4]. Stainless Steel Variety - Market Analysis - On October 29, 2025, the main contract 2512 of stainless steel opened at 12,750 yuan/ton and closed at 12,805 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 93,841 (-3,249) lots, and the open interest was 98,223 (-4,171) lots. Similar to the trend of Shanghai nickel, due to the signs of easing Sino - US friction and the upcoming release of the 14th Five - Year Plan, the main contract of stainless steel also showed a volatile and slightly stronger trend [4]. - The spot price of stainless steel remained stable, but the transactions were still sluggish, and the actual transactions were mainly low - priced goods. The stainless steel price in the Wuxi market was 12,900 (+0) yuan/ton, and in the Foshan market, it was 12,950 (+0) yuan/ton. The premium of 304/2B was from 215 to 515 yuan/ton. According to SMM data, the ex - factory tax - included average price of high - nickel pig iron changed by -2.00 yuan/nickel point to 924.5 yuan/nickel point [4]. - Strategy - Due to weak demand growth and weakening cost support, it is expected that the stainless steel price will remain in an interval oscillation trend. The single - side strategy is neutral, and there are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [6].
新能源及有色金属日报：宏观利好金属板块，镍不锈钢小幅反弹-20251030
Hua Tai Qi Huo·2025-10-30 03:14