Hua Tai Qi Huo·2025-10-30 03:20Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The short - term supply - demand pattern of lithium carbonate is good, with consumption support and continuous inventory reduction, but the market may fall if consumption weakens and mines resume production [4] - The lithium business of some companies has shown different trends. For example, the third - quarter performance of Yahua Group has improved significantly, while Tianqi Lithium has achieved a turnaround in net profit despite a decline in revenue [2][3] Market Analysis - On October 29, 2025, the opening price of the lithium carbonate main contract 2601 was 82,240 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 82,900 yuan/ton, a 0.80% change from the previous settlement price. The trading volume was 659,421 lots, and the position was 506,882 lots, up from 488,803 lots the previous day. The basis was - 2,390 yuan/ton, and the number of lithium carbonate warrants was 2,7525 lots, a change of 190 lots from the previous day [1] - Battery - grade lithium carbonate was quoted at 77,500 - 80,800 yuan/ton, and industrial - grade lithium carbonate was quoted at 76,400 - 77,500 yuan/ton, both up 650 yuan/ton from the previous day. The price of 6% lithium concentrate was 955 US dollars/ton, unchanged from the previous day [1] - The overall operating rate of lithium salt plants remained high, with the operating rates of spodumene and salt lake ends both above 60%. The total output of lithium carbonate in October is expected to continue to rise and may break the historical record [1] - The demand side is strong. The new energy vehicle market is growing rapidly in both commercial and passenger fields, and the energy storage market shows a pattern of strong supply and demand, continuously driving the demand for lithium - battery materials [1] Company Performance - Yahua Group's Q3 2025 revenue was 2.624 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 31.97%; net profit was 198 million yuan, a year - on - year increase of 278.06%. The revenue in the first three quarters was 6.047 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 2.07%; net profit was 334 million yuan, a year - on - year increase of 116.02%. The company's lithium business performance improved in Q3, and it has sufficient orders in Q4 [2] - Tianqi Lithium's Q3 2025 revenue was 2.565 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 29.66%; net profit was 95.4855 million yuan, turning a profit year - on - year. The revenue in the first three quarters was 7.397 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 26.50%; net profit was 180 million yuan, turning a profit year - on - year [3] Strategy - Short - term range operation. Observe the inflection points of inventory and consumption, and sell hedging at high prices when appropriate [4] - There is no strategy for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [5]