尿素：基本面有压力，宏观偏强，震荡博弈

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - The short - term fundamentals of urea are gradually weakening, but due to the macro - driven strength of the commodity index and a slight rise in the coal price, urea is expected to show a volatile and game - playing pattern [3][4]. - The overall spot trading of urea is marginally weakening. The supply - demand pattern remains unchanged, with an increase in daily urea production in early November and weakening demand, so the price trend is expected to be under pressure [4]. - For the valuation, the futures 01 contract may face pressure above 1,660 yuan/ton. The lower valuation of urea will gradually decline to the cash - flow cost line of fixed - bed units of northern factories as export policies become clearer [4]. - Macro events such as the Fourth Plenum, the "15th Five - Year Plan", and Sino - US trade consultations have a significant short - term impact on the equity market and need close attention. Intraday trends mainly depend on spot trading and commodity index fluctuations [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Urea Fundamental Data 3.1.1 Futures Market - Urea Main Contract: The closing price was 1,644 yuan/ton (up 9 yuan from the previous day), the settlement price was 1,643 yuan/ton (up 8 yuan), the trading volume was 150,565 lots (up 47,992 lots), the open interest was 270,349 lots (down 2,652 lots), the number of warehouse receipts was 0 tons (down 2,970 tons), the trading volume was 494.776 million yuan (up 159.355 million yuan), and the basis in Shandong was - 44 (down 19) [2]. - 01 Contract Month - Spread: UR01 - UR05 was - 73, unchanged from the previous day [2]. 3.1.2 Basis - Shandong Region: The basis was - 44, down 19 from the previous day [2]. - Fengxi - Disk: The basis (with about 100 yuan/ton freight) was - 144, down 9 from the previous day [2]. - Dongguang - Disk: The basis (the cheapest deliverable) was - 34, down 9 from the previous day [2]. 3.1.3 Spot Market - Urea Factory Prices: The prices of Henan Xinlianxin, Yankuang Xinjiang, Shandong Ruixing, Hebei Dongguang, and Jiangsu Linggu remained unchanged, while the price of Shanxi Fengxi decreased by 30 yuan/ton to 1,470 yuan/ton [2]. - Trader Prices: The prices in Shandong and Shanxi decreased by 10 yuan/ton to 1,600 yuan/ton and 1,470 yuan/ton respectively [2]. - Supply - Side Indicators: The operating rate was 79.49% (up 0.64 percentage points), and the daily output was 185,960 tons (up 1,500 tons) [2]. 3.2 Industry News - On October 29, 2025, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 1.5543 million tons, a decrease of 75,900 tons from the previous week, a week - on - week decrease of 4.66%. The inventory of urea enterprises changed from rising to falling. Some suppressed demand was released, and new orders and shipments of urea factories increased. However, new orders decreased after the price increase. Inventory increased in Hainan, Heilongjiang, Jilin, Jiangxi, Yunnan, and Chongqing, and decreased in Anhui, Gansu, and other provinces [3].