尿素日报：厂内库存去库，现货情绪降温-20251030

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral [3] - Inter - period: Wait - and - see [3] - Inter - variety: None [3] Core Viewpoints - Urea spot trading weakened after the previous week's simultaneous increase in futures and spot prices. It is expected to fluctuate in the short term, awaiting a driving force. Some regions are in the process of autumn fertilization for agriculture, and the production of autumn fertilizers for compound fertilizers is coming to an end. The operating rates in Shandong, Jiangsu, and Anhui have increased as some previously shut - down devices have resumed production. Currently, the compound fertilizers for winter wheat are mainly for inventory clearance, and the sales sentiment has improved with the clearing weather. The operation of melamine has declined, with only rigid demand for procurement. In the medium - to - long - term, the supply and demand of urea remain relatively loose due to the release of new production capacity. With the improvement of the weather, the agricultural demand for urea has increased, and the factory inventory has decreased this week. Inner Mongolia still has the highest inventory in the country. In November, compound fertilizer plants in the Northeast will gradually start production. Attention should be paid to the procurement rhythm in the Northeast and the national off - season storage rhythm. Urea is still affected by export sentiment. September and October are still export windows. Urea exports reached 1.37 million tons in September, and the cumulative export volume from January to September 2025 was 2.8123 million tons. There are both container loading and departure at ports, and the inventory is being depleted. India's RCF announced a urea import tender on October 1st, with the tender closing on October 15th, the offer validity period until October 30th, and the latest shipping date on December 10th. A total of 3.66 million tons of supplies were received from 25 suppliers. The lowest CFR price was $402/ton on the west coast and $395/ton on the east coast. The current urea export policy may still change, and attention should be paid to subsequent urea export dynamics [2] Summary by Directory 1. Urea Basis Structure - Relevant figures include Shandong urea small - particle market price, Henan urea small - particle market price, Shandong main - continuous basis, Henan main - continuous basis, urea main continuous contract price, 1 - 5 spread, 5 - 9 spread, and 9 - 1 spread [6][7][8][13][16] 2. Urea Production - Relevant figures are urea weekly production and urea plant maintenance loss [18][19] 3. Urea Production Profit and Operating Rate - Relevant figures cover production cost, spot production profit, disk production profit, national capacity utilization rate, coal - based capacity utilization rate, and gas - based capacity utilization rate [24][25][28][30] 4. Urea Foreign Market Price and Export Profit - Relevant figures involve urea small - particle FOB in the Baltic Sea, urea large - particle CFR in Southeast Asia, urea small - particle FOB in China, urea large - particle CFR in China, the difference between urea small - particle FOB in the Baltic Sea and China's FOB minus 30, the difference between urea large - particle CFR in Southeast Asia and China's FOB, urea export profit, and disk export profit [32][34][38][40][43] 5. Urea Downstream Operation and Orders - Relevant figures are compound fertilizer operating rate, melamine operating rate, and pending order days [49][50][51] 6. Urea Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - Relevant figures include upstream factory inventory, port inventory, raw material inventory days of urea downstream manufacturers in Hebei, futures warehouse receipts, main contract holding volume, and main contract trading volume [54][56][59]