石油沥青日报：基本面维持疲软，市场驱动有限-20251030

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral, with a short - term focus on waiting and seeing; no suggestions for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options strategies [2] Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of asphalt remain weak and market drivers are limited. Crude oil price rebound is blocked, leading to an adjustment in the asphalt market and increasing the cautious sentiment in the spot market. The abundant supply of local refineries in Shandong continues to pressure the asphalt spot prices in Shandong and surrounding areas. The market is in a narrow - range oscillation state, waiting for important macro - events [1] Market Analysis - On October 29, the closing price of the main asphalt futures contract BU2601 in the afternoon session was 3,274 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan/ton or 0.21% from the previous settlement price. The open interest was 196,026 lots, a decrease of 1,242 lots from the previous day, and the trading volume was 173,766 lots, an increase of 7,144 lots [1] - The spot settlement prices of heavy - traffic asphalt from Zhuochuang Information are as follows: Northeast: 3,406 - 4,750 yuan/ton; Shandong: 3,200 - 3,620 yuan/ton; South China: 3,360 - 3,580 yuan/ton; East China: 3,410 - 3,500 yuan/ton. The asphalt spot prices in North China and Shandong decreased, while those in other regions remained relatively stable [1] Figures - Figures related to asphalt spot prices in different regions (Shandong, East China, South China, North China, Southwest, Northwest) are presented, with the unit of yuan/ton [3][10][5][7] - Figures related to asphalt futures (index closing price, main contract closing price, near - month contract closing price, near - month spread, unilateral trading volume and open interest, main contract trading volume and open interest) are presented, with the unit of yuan/ton or lots [3][23][20][24] - Figures related to asphalt production (domestic weekly production, independent refinery production, production in Shandong, East China, South China, North China) are presented, with the unit of 10,000 tons [3][32][30][38] - Figures related to asphalt consumption (road consumption, waterproof consumption, coking consumption, ship - fuel consumption) are presented, with the unit of 10,000 tons [3][39][40] - Figures related to asphalt inventory (refinery inventory and social inventory according to Longzhong) are presented, with the unit of 10,000 tons [3][41]