铅锌日评：沪铅高位回落，沪锌持续上行动力或不足-20251030

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The price of lead has fallen from its high, and the upward momentum of zinc prices may be insufficient. It is recommended to hold short positions in zinc and temporarily observe the market [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Lead - Price and Market Data: The average price of SMM1 lead ingots decreased by 0.15% to 17,200 yuan/ton, and the closing price of the main futures contract remained unchanged at 17,355 yuan/ton. The basis, spreads, trading volume, and open interest all showed certain changes. LME inventory remained unchanged, and Shanghai lead warehouse receipts decreased by 0.43% [1]. - Fundamentals: There is no expected increase in lead concentrate imports, and processing fees are likely to rise. Some refineries have maintenance plans, and the supply of secondary lead has increased. The terminal market has improved, and the demand for lead batteries is okay [1]. - Market Outlook: After the sharp rise in lead prices, downstream purchasing enthusiasm has weakened. The supply shortage has improved, and there is significant upward pressure on lead prices [1]. Zinc - Price and Market Data: The average price of SMM1 zinc ingots increased by 0.09% to 22,220 yuan/ton, and the main futures contract rose by 0.54% to 22,430 yuan/ton. The basis, spreads, trading volume, and open interest all changed. LME inventory remained unchanged, and Shanghai zinc warehouse receipts decreased by 1.24% [1]. - Fundamentals: Refineries have sufficient raw material inventories, and zinc ore processing fees are rising. Domestic zinc concentrate processing fees may continue to decline in October. Refinery profits and production enthusiasm have improved, and monthly production is expected to remain around 600,000 tons. The demand has not improved significantly, and the zinc ingot export window may open [1]. - Market Outlook: The macro - sentiment has improved, and the domestic mine supply pattern has tightened. Zinc prices have some support at the bottom, but the weak domestic terminal demand may suppress the upward movement, and the upward momentum may be lacking [1]. Industry News - An Inner Mongolia lead - zinc mine has resumed production, and the total lead - zinc metal output in November is expected to reach 1,000 - 1,500 tons. However, it may enter a regular shutdown period in mid - to - late December [1]. - On October 27, an explosion occurred at the Endeavor silver, zinc, and lead mine in Australia, resulting in two deaths and one injury. The mine has suspended operations for investigation [1].