中辉期货今日重点推荐-20251030

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - Short - term Oscillation: Bean meal and rapeseed meal are expected to have short - term oscillatory trends. For bean meal, due to potential rainfall in Brazil and uncertainties in Sino - US negotiations, it's recommended to participate in short - term trading cautiously. Rapeseed meal is influenced by trade policies and lacks new driving factors, so it follows the trend of bean meal [1][4]. - Short - term Decline: Palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil are likely to experience short - term declines. Palm oil is affected by Indonesia's production increase and requests to cancel the B50 plan. Soybean oil has high inventory and follows palm oil's decline. Rapeseed oil has low mill operation rates and a lack of clear driving factors, remaining in a weak oscillation [1]. - Upturn Under Pressure: Cotton prices face upward pressure. Although there is some support at the bottom from India's MSP, the market is affected by increased supply from the US and other northern hemisphere countries and weak downstream demand [1][14]. - Cautious Bearish Outlook: For jujubes, currently, the market is highly volatile due to capital influence. The fundamental outlook remains bearish, but it's recommended to gradually reduce short positions as the premium is being repaired [1][18]. - Rebound and Sell - Short: The pig market is expected to have a short - term rebound, but the supply - demand situation remains loose. It's advisable to sell short on rebounds, considering the increasing supply pressure in Q4 and the gradual stabilization of terminal demand [1][21]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs Bean Meal - Price Information: The futures price of the main bean meal contract closed at 2969 yuan/ton, down 0.20% from the previous day. The national average spot price was 3045.71 yuan/ton, down 0.11%. The national average soybean crushing profit was - 155.2285 yuan/ton, a decrease of 21.71 yuan/ton [2]. - Inventory and Market Situation: As of October 24, 2025, the national port soybean inventory was 973.1 million tons, a decrease of 15.3 million tons from the previous week. The soybean inventory of 125 oil mills was 751.29 million tons, a decrease of 17.41 million tons. The bean meal inventory was 105.46 million tons, an increase of 7.84 million tons. The physical inventory days of domestic feed enterprises' bean meal were 7.95 days, an increase of 0.03 days. The spot price of bean meal increased by 30 - 40 yuan/ton, but the market procurement sentiment was weak [3]. Rapeseed Meal - Price Information: The futures price of the main rapeseed meal contract closed at 2373 yuan/ton, down 0.96% from the previous day. The national average spot price was 2533.68 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.38%. The national average rapeseed crushing profit was - 404.261 yuan/ton, a decrease of 80.79 yuan/ton [5]. - Inventory and Market Situation: As of October 24, the coastal oil mills' rapeseed inventory was 0.6 million tons, unchanged from the previous week. The rapeseed meal inventory was 0.71 million tons, a decrease of 0.07 million tons. The unexecuted contracts increased by 0.03 million tons. The demand for rapeseed meal has entered the off - season due to the decline in water temperature [6]. Palm Oil - Price and Inventory Information: The futures price of the main palm oil contract closed at 8842 yuan/ton, down 1.29% from the previous day. The national average price was 8803 yuan/ton, down 1.89%. The weekly commercial inventory was 60.71 million tons, an increase of 3.14 million tons [7]. - Production and Export: From October 1 - 25, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil production increased by 2.78% compared to the same period last month, and different institutions reported different trends in export volume [9]. Cotton - Price and Inventory Information: The futures price of the main cotton contract (CF2601) was 13620 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.41% from the previous day. The national commercial cotton inventory was 184.16 million tons, an increase of 41 million tons [11]. - Supply and Demand Situation: In the US, the new cotton harvest is over 70% complete. In Brazil, the new cotton processing and inspection are over 70% complete, and the export has accelerated. In China, the new cotton harvest is expected to be completed in about a week. The downstream demand is weak, with the spinning mill and weaving mill operation rates lower than the same period last year [12][13]. Jujubes - Price and Inventory Information: The futures price of the main jujube contract (CJ2601) was 10495 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.48% from the previous day. The physical inventory of 36 sample enterprises was 9103 tons, an increase of 94 tons [15]. - Market Situation: Some jujube - producing areas have started the harvest, and the market is expected to be in a loose supply situation. The current new jujube purchase price is mainly in the range of 6.5 - 7.5 yuan/kg, and the market is in a wait - and - see state [17]. Pigs - Price and Inventory Information: The futures price of the main pig contract (1h2601) was 12185 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.21% from the previous day. The national average spot price of live pigs was 12490 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.24%. The national sample enterprise pig inventory was 3839.01 million heads, an increase of 56.61 million heads [19]. - Supply and Demand Situation: In the short term, the pig supply pressure is expected to increase in Q4, and the terminal demand is gradually stabilizing. The slaughter rate of key enterprises decreased slightly, and the pork sales volume increased [20][21].