中辉有色观点-20251030

Group 1: Overall Investment Ratings and Core Views - The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating [2] - Core views on various metals: Gold is expected to experience a pullback adjustment in the short - term but maintains long - term strategic value; silver is recommended for long - term buying; copper is recommended for long - term holding; zinc is expected to rebound with limited upside and is a short - term bearish option; lead's price rebound is under pressure; tin's price is short - term strong; aluminum's price is short - term strong; nickel's price is under pressure and weak; industrial silicon is expected to rebound; polysilicon is recommended for long - term holding; and lithium carbonate is recommended for long - term holding [2] Group 2: Gold and Silver Market Review - G2 relations have eased, but Powell's statement was unexpected. Short - term focus is on when gold and silver will stop falling [3] Basic Logic - Powell cooled the market's expectation of a December interest rate cut. The Fed's "dovish" action was accompanied by a "hawkish" guidance. The probability of a December rate cut dropped significantly [4] - The Bank of Canada cut interest rates, and the market expects more cuts [4] - Attention is on the G2 leaders' meeting [4] - In the long run, gold will benefit from global monetary easing, the decline of the US dollar's credit, and the reconstruction of the geopolitical pattern [4] Strategy Recommendation - Short - term focus on when gold and silver will stop falling. For domestic gold, pay attention to the 900 support level. Silver has strong support at 11000. Long - term value - oriented positions should be held [5] Group 3: Copper Market Review - Both Shanghai and London copper prices reached record highs [8] Industry Logic - Trump revoked strict emission restrictions on copper smelters and provided a two - year compliance exemption. SMM expects a decline in electrolytic copper production in October and a contraction in the fourth quarter [8] - High copper prices have curbed demand, and downstream buyers are hesitant. The weekly operating rate of electrolytic copper rod enterprises decreased [8] Strategy Recommendation - Wait and see if copper can break through the 90,000 mark. Short - term copper long positions should take profit, and avoid chasing high prices. Long - term strategic long positions should be held. Industrial hedging should use options for protection [9] Group 4: Zinc Market Review - Zinc continued to rebound but was under pressure at the 22,500 level [11] Industry Logic - Domestic zinc concentrate supply is abundant. The processing fee of domestic zinc concentrate has declined, and the profit loss of refined zinc enterprises has slightly expanded [11] - The "Silver October" peak season was lackluster, and demand was weak. The domestic zinc ingot export window opened, and domestic inventories increased slightly [11] Strategy Recommendation - Zinc's upside is limited after the short - term macro - policy stimulus fades. In the long run, zinc supply will increase while demand decreases. It is a bearish option in the sector [12] Group 5: Aluminum Market Review - Aluminum prices should be chased with caution, and alumina showed a slight stabilization trend [14] Industry Logic - Overseas, the Fed continued to cut interest rates in October. In China, the operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum reached 44.05 million tons in early October, and inventories increased slightly [15] - The domestic alumina industry's profit has shrunk significantly, and some high - cost enterprises are facing losses. The market is in an oversupply situation in the short term [15] Strategy Recommendation - Shanghai aluminum should take profit on short - term long positions. Pay attention to the operating rate changes of downstream processing enterprises [16] Group 6: Nickel Market Review - Nickel prices fell under pressure, and stainless steel's rebound was under pressure [18] Industry Logic - Overseas, the Fed continued to cut interest rates in October. The supply of nickel ore from Indonesia has become more stable, and domestic pure nickel inventories have continued to accumulate [19] - The performance of the stainless steel terminal consumption peak season needs further observation. The expected production increase of stainless steel will put pressure on inventory reduction [19] Strategy Recommendation - Nickel and stainless steel should be put on hold for now. Pay attention to the improvement of downstream consumption [20] Group 7: Lithium Carbonate Market Review - The main contract LC2601 rose and then fell, with a slight increase in positions throughout the day [22] Industry Logic - The fundamentals have improved significantly. Total inventory has decreased for 10 consecutive weeks, and the downstream material factories' raw material inventory has been consumed rapidly [23] - Although supply is still growing, production in Sichuan has decreased slightly. Terminal demand remains strong, and the supply - demand structure has improved [23] Strategy Recommendation - Adopt a low - buying strategy in the range of 82,200 - 84,500 [24]