烧碱山东累库，PVC随宏观反弹

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - PVC rebounds with macro - sentiment, but supply is ample and demand is average. Attention should be paid to anti - involution policies and "15th Five - Year Plan" real estate policies. The PVC market is expected to fluctuate widely with the macro - environment, and V01 - 05 should be reverse - arbitraged when prices are high [3][4] - The spot price of caustic soda is stable with a downward trend. There are new production capacities, and demand is affected by environmental control and seasonal factors. The market should be observed, and the impact of new alumina plant procurement needs to be noted [3][5] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs PVC Market News and Important Data - Futures price: The closing price of the PVC main contract is 4775 yuan/ton (+59). The East China basis is - 135 yuan/ton (- 49), and the South China basis is - 55 yuan/ton (- 49) [1] - Spot price: The East China calcium carbide - based PVC is quoted at 4640 yuan/ton (+10), and the South China calcium carbide - based PVC is quoted at 4720 yuan/ton (+10) [1] - Upstream production profit: The blue charcoal price is 740 yuan/ton (+0), the calcium carbide price is 2830 yuan/ton (+0), the calcium carbide profit is - 52 yuan/ton (+0), the gross profit of PVC calcium carbide - based production is - 723 yuan/ton (- 10), the gross profit of PVC ethylene - based production is - 560 yuan/ton (- 8), and the PVC export profit is - 4.6 dollars/ton (- 0.9) [1] - Inventory and开工: The in - factory PVC inventory is 33.4 tons (- 2.7), the social PVC inventory is 55.5 tons (- 0.2), the calcium carbide - based PVC operating rate is 71.65% (- 3.08%), the ethylene - based PVC operating rate is 78.56% (+2.46%), and the overall PVC operating rate is 73.74% (- 1.40%) [1] - Downstream orders: The pre - sales volume of production enterprises is 63.5 tons (+8.0) [1] Market Analysis - Supply: Some maintenance enterprises have resumed production, and new production capacities are gradually reaching full production, resulting in an abundant supply [3] - Demand: Downstream operating rates have increased, but the trading atmosphere is average. The social inventory has slightly decreased, but the absolute inventory level is high [3] - Export: In September, PVC exports were 34.64 tons, a month - on - month increase of 21.94% and a year - on - year increase of 24.53%. The cumulative exports were 292.15 tons, a year - on - year increase of 50.58%. However, the export of PVC products may be affected by anti - dumping investigations [3] - Futures: The PVC futures warehouse receipts are still at a high level, and the hedging pressure on the futures price persists [3] Caustic Soda Market News and Important Data - Futures price: The closing price of the SH main contract is 2361 yuan/ton (+20), and the basis of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 139 yuan/ton (- 20) [1] - Spot price: The price of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 800 yuan/ton (+0), and the price of 50% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 1250 yuan/ton (+0) [2] - Upstream production profit: The single - variety profit of caustic soda in Shandong is 1509 yuan/ton (+0), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (0.8 tons of liquid chlorine) is 965.8 yuan/ton (+40.0), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (1 ton of PVC) is 133.78 yuan/ton (+0.00), and the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in the Northwest (1 ton of PVC) is 1034.24 yuan/ton (- 101.01) [2] - Inventory and开工: The liquid caustic soda factory inventory is 41.43 tons (+1.10), the flake caustic soda factory inventory is 2.45 tons (+0.00), and the caustic soda operating rate is 80.80% (- 0.60%) [2] - Downstream开工: The alumina operating rate is 86.27% (+0.05%), the printing and dyeing operating rate in East China is 67.31% (+0.55%), and the viscose staple fiber operating rate is 88.61% (+0.00%) [2] Market Analysis - Supply: New production capacities have reached full production, and there are both new maintenance enterprises and those increasing production. The supply is affected by new capacity releases and maintenance situations [3] - Demand: The alumina orders in Shandong are stable, but the unloading efficiency has decreased. The alumina operating rate has been slightly affected by environmental control. Non - aluminum demand is mainly for rigid procurement and will enter the off - season [3] - Inventory: The liquid caustic soda inventory in Shandong and Jiangsu has increased [3] - Price support: The expected commissioning of alumina plants in Guangxi and ongoing caustic soda tenders may support the caustic soda price in the next two months [3]