国债期货日报：国债收益率曲线走陡，国债期货大多收涨-20251030

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Affected by the central bank's restart of treasury bond trading and the continued expectation of a Fed rate cut, most treasury bond futures closed higher yesterday. Overall, the increasing global trade uncertainty adds to the uncertainty of foreign capital inflows. The bond market fluctuates between the expectations of stable growth and monetary easing. Short - term attention should be paid to policy signals at the end of the month [3]. Summary by Directory I. Interest Rate Pricing Tracking Indicators - Price indicators: China's monthly CPI had a 0.10% month - on - month change and a - 0.30% year - on - year change; China's monthly PPI had a 0.00% month - on - month change and a - 2.30% year - on - year change [9]. - Monthly economic indicators: The social financing scale was 437.08 trillion yuan, with a month - on - month increase of 3.42 trillion yuan (+0.79%); M2 year - on - year was 8.40%, with a - 0.40% change (-4.55%); the manufacturing PMI was 49.80%, with a +0.40% month - on - month change (+0.81%) [10]. - Daily economic indicators: The US dollar index was 99.13, with a +0.42 month - on - month change (+0.43%); the offshore US dollar to RMB exchange rate was 7.0972, with a +0.000 month - on - month change (+0.00%); SHIBOR 7 - day was 1.51, with a - 0.02 month - on - month change (-1.18%); DR007 was 1.55, with a - 0.01 month - on - month change (-0.82%); R007 was 1.53, with a +0.02 month - on - month change (+1.49%); the 3 - month inter - bank certificate of deposit (AAA) was 1.59, with a - 0.01 month - on - month change (-0.32%); the AA - AAA credit spread (1Y) was 0.09, with a +0.00 month - on - month change (-0.32%) [11]. II. Overview of Treasury Bonds and Treasury Bond Futures Market - Multiple charts are provided to show the situation of the treasury bond and treasury bond futures market, including the closing price trend of the main continuous contracts of treasury bond futures, the price change rate of each variety of treasury bond futures, the precipitation of funds in each variety of treasury bond futures, the position ratio of each variety of treasury bond futures, etc. [15][16][18] III. Overview of the Money Market Funding Situation - Multiple charts are provided to show the money market funding situation, including the Shibor interest rate trend, the maturity yield trend of inter - bank certificates of deposit (AAA), the trading statistics of inter - bank pledged repurchase, and the local government bond issuance situation [28][31] IV. Spread Overview - Multiple charts are provided to show the spread situation, including the inter - period spread trend of each variety of treasury bond futures, the term spread of spot bonds and the cross - variety spread of futures [37][40][44] V. Two - Year Treasury Bond Futures - Multiple charts are provided to show the situation of two - year treasury bond futures, including the implied interest rate of the main contract of two - year treasury bond futures and the treasury bond maturity yield, the IRR of the TS main contract and the funding rate, the three - year basis trend of the TS main contract, etc. [42][46][54] VI. Five - Year Treasury Bond Futures - Multiple charts are provided to show the situation of five - year treasury bond futures, including the implied interest rate of the main contract of five - year treasury bond futures and the treasury bond maturity yield, the IRR of the TF main contract and the funding rate, the three - year basis trend of the TF main contract, etc. [56][60][61] VII. Ten - Year Treasury Bond Futures - Multiple charts are provided to show the situation of ten - year treasury bond futures, including the implied yield of the main contract of ten - year treasury bond futures and the treasury bond maturity yield, the IRR of the T main contract and the funding rate, the three - year basis trend of the T main contract, etc. [63][65][66] VIII. Thirty - Year Treasury Bond Futures - Multiple charts are provided to show the situation of thirty - year treasury bond futures, including the implied yield of the main contract of thirty - year treasury bond futures and the treasury bond maturity yield, the IRR of the TL main contract and the funding rate, the three - year basis trend of the TL main contract, etc. [70][72][76] Strategy - Unilateral: With the decline of repurchase interest rates, be cautiously bullish on 2512 [4]. - Arbitrage: Pay attention to the basis rebound of 2512 [4]. - Hedging: There is medium - term adjustment pressure, and short - sellers can use far - month contracts for appropriate hedging [4].