新能源及有色金属日报：下游维持刚需采购，铅价继续震荡格局-20251030

Group 1: Investment Rating - Absolute price: Neutral [3] - Option strategy: On hold [4] Group 2: Core View - The domestic lead ore supply remains relatively tight, but smelters have low willingness to purchase high-silver ores. The market is in a situation of weak supply and demand. Since the National Day, downstream demand has been better than expected, leading to significant inventory reduction in China. However, with the overall adjustment of the non-ferrous metals sector, lead prices may temporarily enter a volatile pattern [3] Group 3: Market News and Key Data Spot - On October 29, 2025, the LME lead spot premium was -$35.54/ton. The SMM 1 lead ingot spot price decreased by 25 yuan/ton to 17,200 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The SMM Shanghai lead spot premium remained unchanged at 20.00 yuan/ton, the SMM Guangdong lead spot price decreased by 25 yuan/ton to 17,275 yuan/ton, the SMM Henan lead spot price decreased by 75 yuan/ton to 17,225 yuan/ton, and the SMM Tianjin lead spot premium decreased by 75 yuan/ton to 17,275 yuan/ton. The lead concentrate scrap price difference remained unchanged at -50 yuan/ton, the price of waste electric vehicle batteries remained unchanged at 10,025 yuan/ton, the price of waste white shells remained unchanged at 10,150 yuan/ton, and the price of waste black shells remained unchanged at 10,425 yuan/ton [1] Futures - On October 29, 2025, the main SHFE lead contract opened at 17,315 yuan/ton and closed at 17,355 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 46,325 lots, a decrease of 10,850 lots from the previous trading day, and the open interest was 73,518 lots, a decrease of 4,117 lots from the previous trading day. The intraday price fluctuated, with a high of 17,410 yuan/ton and a low of 17,315 yuan/ton. In the night session, the main SHFE lead contract opened at 17,360 yuan/ton and closed at 17,360 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton from the afternoon close. According to SMM, the SMM 1 lead price decreased by 25 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. In Henan, holders quoted at a discount of 110 - 150 yuan/ton to the SHFE lead 2512 contract for ex-factory sales. In Hunan, some smelters with low inventories raised prices for sales, quoting at a premium of 20 - 50 yuan/ton to the SMM 1 lead for ex-factory sales, while traders actively lowered premiums for sales, quoting at a premium of 0 - 40 yuan/ton to the SMM 1 lead. Downstream battery enterprises maintained rigid demand procurement, and the trading of scattered goods remained light [2] Inventory - On October 29, 2025, the total SMM lead ingot inventory was 30,000 tons, a decrease of 1,600 tons compared to the same period last week. As of November 28, the LME lead inventory was 224,875 tons, a decrease of 4,800 tons from the previous trading day [2]