农产品日报：现货价格持稳，豆粕震荡运行-20251030

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for both the粕类 and corn sectors is "Cautiously Bearish" [4][7] 2. Core Viewpoints - For the粕类 market, the domestic fundamentals have not changed significantly. The domestic arrival volume is sufficient, and the inventory of soybeans and soybean meal remains at a relatively high level, with overall supply being relatively loose. Future focuses include the Sino - US negotiation situation and the sowing progress of new - season Brazilian soybeans [3] - For the corn market, on the supply side, farmers' enthusiasm for selling grain has recovered slightly in the Northeast region due to the slightly stronger price, while in the North China region, the risk of bad grain has decreased, and the shipment rhythm of moist grain has slowed down. On the demand side, the inventory of various channels is low, but the willingness to stock up is weak [5][6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 粕类 Market 3.1.1 Market News and Key Data - Futures: The closing price of the soybean meal 2601 contract was 2969 yuan/ton, a change of - 6 yuan/ton (- 0.20%) from the previous day; the rapeseed meal 2601 contract was 2373 yuan/ton, a change of - 23 yuan/ton (- 0.96%) [1] - Spot: In Tianjin, the soybean meal spot price was 3010 yuan/ton, a change of + 10 yuan/ton, with a spot basis of M01 + 41, a change of + 16 from the previous day; in Jiangsu, it was 2930 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, with a spot basis of M01 - 39, a change of + 6; in Guangdong, it was 2940 yuan/ton, a change of - 10 yuan/ton, with a spot basis of M01 - 29, a change of - 4. In Fujian, the rapeseed meal spot price was 2580 yuan/ton, a change of - 20 yuan/ton, with a spot basis of RM01 + 207, a change of + 3 [1] - Market Information: As of last Thursday, the planting rate of 2025/26 Brazilian soybeans reached 36% of the expected sown area, the same as last year. Brazil's soybean exports in October are expected to be 7 million tons. As of the week of October 23, 2025, the US soybean export inspection volume was 1.061 million tons [2] 3.1.2 Market Analysis - The domestic fundamentals have not changed much, with sufficient arrivals and high inventory of soybeans and soybean meal. Future focuses are on Sino - US negotiations and the sowing of new - season Brazilian soybeans [3] 3.1.3 Strategy - Cautiously bearish [4] 3.2 Corn Market 3.2.1 Market News and Key Data - Futures: The closing price of the corn 2511 contract was 2116 yuan/ton, a change of - 7 yuan/ton (- 0.33%) from the previous day; the corn starch 2511 contract was 2427 yuan/ton, a change of + 3 yuan/ton (+ 0.12%) [4] - Spot: In Liaoning, the corn spot price was 2150 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, with a spot basis of C11 + 24, a change of + 7; in Jilin, the corn starch spot price was 2550 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, with a spot basis of CS11 + 123, a change of - 3 [4] - Market Information: As of October 25, the planting of the first - season corn in Brazil in 2025/26 was 40.0% completed, compared with 33.2% last week, 36.8% last year, and a five - year average of 39.6% [4] 3.2.2 Market Analysis - On the supply side, farmers' enthusiasm for selling grain in the Northeast has recovered slightly, and the shipment of moist grain in North China has slowed down. On the demand side, inventory is low, but the willingness to stock up is weak [5][6] 3.2.3 Strategy - Cautiously bearish [7]