国泰君安期货商品研究晨报：黑色系列-20251030

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Iron ore is expected to fluctuate strongly [2][6]. - The prices of rebar and hot-rolled coil are pushed up by macro sentiment and are expected to fluctuate strongly [2][7]. - Ferrosilicon and silicomanganese are driven by anti-involution sentiment and are expected to fluctuate strongly [2][12][13]. - Coke is expected to fluctuate strongly [2][16]. - Coking coal resonates with the macro and sector themes and is expected to fluctuate strongly [2][17]. - Logs are expected to fluctuate repeatedly [2][19]. Summary by Related Catalogs Iron Ore - Fundamental Data: The futures price closed at 804.5 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan or 1.51%. The open interest decreased by 6,094 lots. The prices of imported and some domestic ores increased slightly. The basis and some spreads changed [5]. - Macro and Industry News: President Xi Jinping will meet with US President Trump in Busan, South Korea on October 30 to exchange views on Sino-US relations and common concerns [5]. - Trend Intensity: The trend intensity of iron ore is 0 [5]. Rebar and Hot-Rolled Coil - Fundamental Data: The futures prices of RB2601 and HC2601 increased, with the latter rising 1.21%. The trading volume and open interest of some contracts changed. The spot prices in various regions increased, and the basis and spreads also changed [7]. - Macro and Industry News: Five departments including the Ministry of Commerce support eligible commercial real estate projects to issue REITs. The 15th Five-Year Plan proposes directions for the high-quality development of the steel industry. Steel production and inventory data for October 23 and September 2025 are provided, and the steel inventory of key enterprises in early October increased [8][9]. - Trend Intensity: The trend intensity of rebar and hot-rolled coil is 1 [9]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - Fundamental Data: The futures prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese contracts increased. The spot prices of some products changed, and the basis, spreads, and cross-variety spreads also changed [13]. - Macro and Industry News: The prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese in different regions are reported. A large ferrosilicon factory in Gansu reduced production, and a steel mill in Zhejiang set a purchase price for silicomanganese. The production of silicomanganese in northern regions in October decreased [13][15]. - Trend Intensity: The trend intensity of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese is 0 [15]. Coke and Coking Coal - Fundamental Data: The futures prices of coking coal and coke contracts increased significantly. The spot prices of some coking coal and coke products changed, and the basis and spreads also changed [17]. - Macro and Industry News: President Xi Jinping will meet with US President Trump in Busan, South Korea on October 30 to exchange views on Sino-US relations and common concerns [18]. - Trend Intensity: The trend intensity of coke and coking coal is 0 [18]. Logs - Fundamental Data: The prices, trading volumes, and open interests of log futures contracts changed. The spot prices of different types of logs in various regions remained stable or changed slightly [20]. - Macro and Industry News: President Xi Jinping will meet with US President Trump in Busan, South Korea on October 30 to exchange views on Sino-US relations and common concerns [22]. - Trend Intensity: The trend intensity of logs is 0 [22].