Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - A-shares showed a strong upward trend, with the Shanghai Composite Index returning above 4000 points, and the North Securities 50 soaring over 8%. The new energy sector exploded, and sectors such as non-ferrous metals, computing hardware, quantum technology, and Hainan Free Trade Concept also rose significantly. Consider a strategy of buying on dips and pay attention to index rotation [8]. - The implementation of monetary policy is entering a phase of realization, and bonds still have upward momentum. There is a divergence in the Fed's path of interest rate cuts, and the market's expectation of loose monetary policy is increasing [8][9][10]. - The black market is expected to continue its short - term rebound but with limited space, and maintain a mid - term oscillation pattern. The prices of double - coking coal may continue to oscillate strongly in the short term, and attention should be paid to the disturbances from coal mine inspections and downstream molten iron production changes [11]. - For colored metals and new materials, it is recommended to wait and see for aluminum, and short on rallies for alumina. For zinc, hold short positions. The price of lithium carbonate is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term. Industrial silicon and polysilicon are expected to oscillate within a range [17][18][20]. - In the agricultural products market, for cotton, consider shorting on rebounds with caution; for sugar, use a short - rolling strategy or wait and see; for eggs, wait and see or try shorting lightly on rallies; apples are expected to oscillate strongly; for corn, be cautious about shorting near - month contracts and consider going long on far - month contracts; for jujubes, wait and see; for live pigs, short near - month contracts on rallies [25][27][29][31][32][33]. - In the energy and chemical market, the contradiction between supply and demand of crude oil is expected to become more prominent, and oil prices are likely to fall. Fuel oil prices will follow oil prices. Polyolefins may have an emotional rebound in the short term, but the fundamentals are not significantly improved. Rubber is in an oscillation pattern. Methanol is recommended to be treated with an oscillation strategy. Caustic soda is also in an oscillation pattern. Asphalt is expected to oscillate. For the polyester industry chain, consider short - term long positions. LPG is expected to follow crude oil in the short term but may be relatively weaker than crude oil in the future. Pulp can consider going long on far - month 01 contracts if the spot is stable. Logs are expected to be under pressure. Urea is expected to oscillate weakly. Synthetic rubber is recommended to stop losses in the short term and be cautious about chasing up [36][37][38][39][40][41][44][45][46][47][48]. Summary by Directory Macro News - China and the US agreed that President Xi Jinping will meet with US President Trump in Busan, South Korea on October 30th to exchange views on China - US relations and common concerns [4]. - The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points, lowering the federal funds rate to 3.75% - 4.00%, and will end the balance - sheet reduction on December 1st. There are significant differences within the Fed regarding the future path of interest rate cuts [4]. - China's purchase of soybeans from the US was reported, and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs stated that China's position on relevant issues is consistent [4]. - The CSRC clarified key measures to promote the reform of the Beijing Stock Exchange and the New Third Board, including improving the issuance and listing mechanism of the Beijing Stock Exchange, activating the "cultivation" function of the New Third Board, etc. The chairman of the Beijing Stock Exchange said that the North Securities 50 ETF will be launched soon, and post - market fixed - price trading will be studied [5]. - As of the end of the third quarter, the scale of ETFs held by Central Huijin Investment and related entities increased by more than 200 billion yuan in a single quarter, reaching about 1.55 trillion yuan, continuing to support the stock market [5]. - Ningquan Asset announced that it will suspend accepting new investors' first - time subscription applications for all its funds from October 30th [5]. - South Korea and the US reached a specific economic and trade agreement. South Korea will invest 200 billion US dollars in cash and 150 billion US dollars in shipbuilding cooperation in a 350 - billion - dollar project. The US will reduce the tariff on South Korean cars from 25% to 15% [5]. - The US Senate passed a bill to terminate the national emergency used by the Trump administration to impose a 50% tariff on Brazilian goods, but the House of Representatives may not vote on overturning the tariff until March next year [6]. - The US announced a new round of sanctions against Russia, targeting two major Russian oil companies and their 34 subsidiaries [6]. - It is expected that Russia's retail gold purchases will reach 62.2 tons this year, and Russian people have accumulated 282 tons of gold purchases since the Russia - Ukraine conflict [6]. - The Reserve Bank of India has repatriated nearly 64 tons of gold in the first six months of this fiscal year, and the proportion of domestic gold reserves has almost doubled compared to four years ago [6]. Stock Index Futures - A - shares showed a strong upward trend, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing up 0.7% at 4016.33 points, and the daily trading volume reaching 2.29 trillion yuan. Consider a strategy of buying on dips and pay attention to index rotation [8]. Treasury Bond Futures - The implementation of monetary policy is entering a phase of realization, and bonds still have upward momentum. There is a divergence in the Fed's path of interest rate cuts, and the market's expectation of loose monetary policy is increasing [8][9][10]. Black Market - Screw and Ore: In the short term, the black market is expected to continue its rebound but with limited space, and maintain a mid - term oscillation pattern. Pay attention to the impact of Sino - US relations and relevant meetings on the market. The demand for building materials is weak, while the demand for coils is acceptable. Iron ore and other raw material prices are oscillating, and steel prices are expected to have limited rebound space [11]. - Coking Coal and Coke: The prices of double - coking coal may continue to oscillate strongly in the short term. Pay attention to the disturbances from coal mine inspections and downstream molten iron production changes. In the short term, the supply of coking coal may contract, and the high molten iron production supports the price, but the potential negative feedback risk from weakening steel demand may limit the price increase [11][12]. - Ferroalloys: For ferrosilicon, the upper limit of the futures price may face strong hedging pressure. For silicomanganese, it is recommended to short on rallies in the medium term and control positions [12]. Colored Metals and New Materials - Aluminum and Alumina: For aluminum, it is recommended to wait and see as the domestic demand is weak. For alumina, short on rallies as the supply surplus pressure is large [17]. - Zinc: As of October 27th, the domestic zinc inventory increased. Hold short positions as the Fed's decision will briefly affect the price [18]. - Lithium Carbonate: The price is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term due to strong demand and short - term supply approaching its peak [20][21]. - Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon: Industrial silicon and polysilicon are expected to oscillate within a range. The price of polysilicon is supported by the spot price, and the upper limit depends on the implementation of capacity merger policies [22][23]. Agricultural Products - Cotton: Consider shorting on rebounds with caution as the supply pressure is increasing and the demand is weak. The impact of Sino - US trade relations on the market needs to be further observed [25]. - Sugar: Use a short - rolling strategy or wait and see as the global sugar supply is in surplus, and the domestic supply pressure is increasing, but the cost supports the price [27]. - Eggs: Wait and see or try shorting lightly on rallies. The egg market is in a process of "capacity reduction", but the supply - demand pattern is still loose, and the increase in egg prices may be limited [29]. - Apples: Expected to oscillate strongly. Pay attention to the price changes, storage progress, and the purchasing sentiment of merchants [31]. - Corn: Be cautious about shorting near - month contracts and consider going long on far - month contracts. The corn market is facing short - term supply pressure, and pay attention to the sales progress of new grain and the release rhythm of policy wheat [32]. - Jujubes: Wait and see as the market price is stable, and pay attention to the price changes after the new season's centralized listing [33]. - Live Pigs: Short near - month contracts on rallies. The supply - demand pattern is in a stalemate, and the spot price is expected to oscillate in the short term. Pay attention to the end - of - month slaughter rhythm of large - scale enterprises [33]. Energy and Chemical Market - Crude Oil: The contradiction between supply and demand is expected to become more prominent, and oil prices are likely to fall. The EIA inventory decreased, and the Sino - US negotiation released a positive signal, but the supply is expected to increase, and the demand may be suppressed [36]. - Fuel Oil: The price will follow oil prices. The supply - demand structure is loose, and the short - term focus is on the impact of sanctions on Russia's supply [37]. - Plastic: Polyolefins may have an emotional rebound in the short term, but the fundamentals are not significantly improved. It is recommended to use a hedging strategy after the rebound [38]. - Rubber: In an oscillation pattern. Consider double - selling strategies or short - term long positions on pullbacks [39]. - Methanol: Treat with an oscillation strategy. The current situation is weak, but there are potential positive factors such as winter natural gas restrictions. Wait for a rebound driver and then consider a small - scale long position [40]. - Caustic Soda: In an oscillation pattern. The supply is in surplus, and the coal price provides some support. Be cautious about the risk of shorting [41]. - Asphalt: Expected to oscillate. The price is affected by geopolitical and macro factors, and the demand is in the seasonal peak but gradually approaching the end [42]. - Polyester Industry Chain: Consider short - term long positions as the market sentiment is strong. Pay attention to the results of relevant meetings and the implementation of policies [44]. - Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG): Expected to follow crude oil in the short term but may be relatively weaker than crude oil in the future. The supply is abundant, and the demand may weaken [45]. - Pulp: Consider going long on far - month 01 contracts if the spot is stable. The macro sentiment is improving, and the fundamentals are relatively stable [46]. - Logs: Expected to be under pressure. The inventory is expected to increase, and the demand is weak [46]. - Urea: Expected to oscillate weakly. Pay attention to the impact of the cost side on the futures price, and the supply - demand situation has deteriorated [46][47]. - Synthetic Rubber: Stop losses in the short term and be cautious about chasing up. The price is affected by the cost and device maintenance, and pay attention to downstream procurement and macro sentiment [48].
中泰期货晨会纪要-20251030
Zhong Tai Qi Huo·2025-10-30 03:53