Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - Steel: Oscillating with an upward bias [1] - Iron Ore: Oscillating [1] - Coking Coal: Oscillating [1] - Coke: Oscillating [1] - Manganese Silicon: Oscillating with an upward bias [1] - Ferrosilicon: Oscillating with an upward bias [3] Group 2: Core Views of the Report - For steel, the supply - demand data has improved with falling production and inventory and rising apparent demand. Strong cost support and positive market sentiment are expected to drive the short - term upward bias [1]. - Iron ore shows an oscillating trend due to the increase in global shipments and the decrease in molten iron production [1]. - Coking coal is expected to have a wide - range oscillation as tightened supply measures and uncertain demand from coke enterprises co - exist [1]. - Coke is likely to oscillate widely as supply has an upward adjustment intention while demand has a downward trend [1]. - Manganese silicon may have a slightly upward - moving price center, but the sustainability is limited due to a complex supply - demand - cost - inventory situation [3]. - Ferrosilicon is expected to oscillate slightly upward as market sentiment is boosted, but the driving force for continuous upward movement is weak [3]. Group 3: Summary of Daily Data Monitoring Contract Spread - For rebar, the 1 - 5 month spread is - 53.0 (up 10.0), and the 5 - 10 month spread is - 32.0 (up 3.0) [4]. - For hot - rolled coil, the 1 - 5 month spread is - 13.0 (down 2.0), and the 5 - 10 month spread is - 8.0 (up 15.0) [4]. - For iron ore, the 1 - 5 month spread is 23.0 (down 1.0), and the 5 - 9 month spread is 21.5 (unchanged) [4]. - For coke, the 1 - 5 month spread is - 143.0 (down 13.5), and the 5 - 9 month spread is - 90.5 (up 8.0) [4]. - For coking coal, the 1 - 5 month spread is - 76.5 (down 11.0), and the 5 - 9 month spread is - 73.5 (up 1.5) [4]. - For manganese silicon, the 1 - 5 month spread is - 38.0 (unchanged), and the 5 - 9 month spread is - 34.0 (down 8.0) [4]. - For ferrosilicon, the 1 - 5 month spread is - 88.0 (down 10.0), and the 5 - 9 month spread is - 58.0 (up 8.0) [4]. Basis - For rebar, the 01 - contract basis is 107.0 (down 22.0), and the 05 - contract basis is 54.0 (down 12.0) [4]. - For hot - rolled coil, the 01 - contract basis is 15.0 (down 20.0), and the 05 - contract basis is 2.0 (down 22.0) [4]. - For iron ore, the 01 - contract basis is 50.9 (down 2.1), and the 05 - contract basis is 73.9 (down 3.1) [4]. - For coke, the 01 - contract basis is - 81.2 (down 10.0), and the 05 - contract basis is - 224.2 (down 23.5) [4]. - For coking coal, the 01 - contract basis is - 34.0 (down 60.0), and the 05 - contract basis is - 110.5 (down 71.0) [4]. - For manganese silicon, the 01 - contract basis is - 172.0 (down 62.0), and the 05 - contract basis is - 210.0 (down 62.0) [4]. - For ferrosilicon, the 01 - contract basis is - 294.0 (down 50.0), and the 05 - contract basis is - 382.0 (down 60.0) [4]. Spot Price - For rebar, Shanghai is 3240.0 (up 20.0), Beijing is 3170.0 (up 30.0), and Guangzhou is 3330.0 (up 20.0) [4]. - For hot - rolled coil, Shanghai is 3360.0 (up 20.0), Tianjin is 3310.0 (up 20.0), and Guangzhou is 3360.0 (up 30.0) [4]. - For iron ore, PB powder is 805.0 (up 9.0), and Super Special powder is 715.0 (up 6.0) [4]. - For coke, Rizhao quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke is 1550.0 (up 40.0) [4]. - For coking coal, Shanxi medium - sulfur primary coking coal is 1460.0 (unchanged) [4]. - For manganese silicon, Ningxia is 5600.0 (up 20.0), Inner Mongolia is 5680.0 (unchanged), and Guangxi is 5650.0 (unchanged) [4]. - For ferrosilicon, Ningxia is 5170.0 (unchanged), Inner Mongolia is 5200.0 (down 20.0), and Qinghai is 5200.0 (unchanged) [4]. Profit and Spread - Rebar's disk profit is - 137.9 (down 4.6), long - process profit is - 81.8 (up 3.9), and short - process profit is - 40.6 (up 10.0) [4]. - The coil - rebar spread is 212.0 (down 2.0), the rebar - iron ore ratio is 3.9 (down 0.01), the rebar - coke ratio is 1.7 (down 0.03), the coking coal - iron ore ratio is 1.4 (down 0.02), the coke - iron ore ratio is 2.2 (up 0.03), and the double - silicon spread is 258.0 (down 28.0) [4]. Group 4: Chart Analysis 3.1 Main Contract Price - Charts show the closing prices of main contracts for rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon from 2020 to 2025 [6][7][10][14] 3.2 Main Contract Basis - Charts display the basis of main contracts for rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon [16][18][21][23] 3.3 Inter - period Contract Spread - Charts present the inter - period contract spreads of rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon [25][29][30][34][37] 3.4 Inter - variety Contract Spread - Charts show the inter - variety contract spreads such as the ferrosilicon contract spread, main - contract coil - rebar spread, rebar - iron ore ratio, rebar - coke ratio, coking coal - iron ore ratio, coke - iron ore ratio, and double - silicon spread [39][40][41][42] 3.5 Rebar Profit - Charts illustrate the disk profit, long - process calculated profit, and short - process calculated profit of rebar from 2020 to 2025 [44][45][48] Group 5: Black Research Team Member Introduction - Qiu Yuecheng, the assistant director of Everbright Futures Research Institute and the director of black research, has nearly 20 years of experience in the steel industry [50] - Zhang Xiaojin, the director of resource product research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, has rich experience in the coal futures field [50] - Liu Xi, a black researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, is good at fundamental supply - demand analysis based on industrial chain data [50] - Zhang Chunjie, a black researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, has experience in investment trading strategies and combining financial theory with industrial operations [51]
黑色商品日报-20251030
Guang Da Qi Huo·2025-10-30 05:07