美联储宣布10月降息和12月结束缩表，称12月降息并非板上钉钉

Monetary Policy Decisions - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point rate cut in October and plans to end balance sheet reduction in December[1] - The December rate cut is not guaranteed, with the Fed emphasizing the need to monitor upcoming data post-government shutdown[2] Economic Indicators - Core inflation, excluding tariff impacts, is nearing the 2% target, with the core PCE expected to be in the range of 2.3%-2.4%[3] - Recent employment data indicates a cooling labor market, but the trend of weakness has not intensified[3] Internal Disagreements - There remains internal dissent within the Fed, with two members voting against the 25 basis point cut, advocating for a 50 basis point reduction instead[2] - The division among Fed members adds uncertainty to the December rate decision[2] Data Dependency - The upcoming release of economic data following the government shutdown will be crucial for the December monetary policy meeting[3] - The lack of government data during the shutdown has created a vacuum that private sector data cannot fill[3] Risks and Considerations - Risks include potential inflation from rapid rate cuts or renewed tariffs, and slower cuts could lead to economic recession[3]