Report Industry Investment Ratings - Macro Finance: Long-term bullish on stock indices, recommended to buy on dips; hold a neutral stance on government bonds [1][5] - Black Building Materials: Adopt a range trading strategy for coking coal and rebar; sell call options for glass [1][7][8] - Non-ferrous Metals: Cautiously hold long positions on copper on dips without chasing highs; wait for price pullbacks to go long on aluminum; either hold a wait-and-see stance or go short on nickel on rallies; use a range trading strategy for tin, gold, and silver [1][11][12] - Energy and Chemicals: PVC, caustic soda, styrene, rubber, urea, and methanol are expected to trade in a range; polyolefins are expected to trade in a wide range; take a short position on the 01 contract of soda ash [1][20][22][23] - Cotton Textile Industry Chain: Cotton and cotton yarn are expected to trade with a slight upward bias; PTA is expected to trade in a range; apples are expected to trade with a slight upward bias; red dates are expected to trade in a range [1][35][36] - Agriculture and Animal Husbandry: Go short on hogs and eggs on rallies; corn is expected to trade with a downward bias; soybean meal is expected to rebound from a low level; oils are expected to experience a high-level adjustment with palm oil being weak and soybean oil being strong [1][39][40][46] Core Views - The report provides investment strategies and market outlooks for various futures products based on factors such as supply and demand, cost, macroeconomic policies, and international trade relations [1][5][7] - It emphasizes the importance of considering multiple factors and market uncertainties when making investment decisions, and provides specific price ranges and trading strategies for different products [11][20][21] Summary by Industry Macro Finance - Stock Indices: The market is expected to trade with a slight upward bias in the medium to long term. The recent market has seen an increase in trading volume, with sectors such as new energy and non-ferrous metals performing strongly. Positive factors such as Sino-US talks and the Fed's interest rate cut expectations may support the upward movement of stock indices [5] - Government Bonds: The market is expected to trade in a range. Although the central bank will resume open market bond trading, the improving market risk appetite may limit the upward potential of government bonds [5] Black Building Materials - Double Coking (Coking Coal and Coke): The market is expected to trade in a range. The recent price increase is mainly driven by the strengthening of upstream coking coal prices, and the short-term supply shortage is the core factor supporting the strong operation of coal prices [7] - Rebar: The market is expected to trade in a range. The futures price has strengthened recently, and the low valuation and improving market sentiment may limit the downward space of steel prices. It is recommended to go long on the RB2601 contract on dips [7] - Glass: It is recommended to sell call options. The recent fundamental situation has continued to deteriorate, and the lack of macro policy expectations may make it difficult for the price to rise. It is expected that the price will be more likely to fall than rise [8][9] Non-ferrous Metals - Copper: The market is expected to trade at a high level. The recent strong rise in copper prices is driven by factors such as supply shortage concerns and optimistic trade prospects. However, the high price may suppress downstream demand, and the price is expected to maintain a volatile upward trend in the near term [11][12] - Aluminum: The market is expected to trade at a high level. The recent decline in electrolytic aluminum production capacity and the positive signals from Sino-US and overseas economic policies may support the price. It is recommended to take profit on long positions on rallies and pay attention to tariff developments and market sentiment [13] - Nickel: The market is expected to trade in a range. The new RKAB policy in Indonesia may bring some uncertainties to the supply of nickel ore, and the medium to long-term supply surplus may continue. It is recommended to hold a wait-and-see stance or go short on rallies [16] - Tin: The market is expected to trade in a range. The supply of tin ore is expected to improve in the fourth quarter, but the downstream demand is weak. It is recommended to use a range trading strategy and pay attention to the supply resumption and downstream demand recovery [17][18] - Silver and Gold: The market is expected to trade in a range. The recent decline in prices is due to factors such as the improvement of the US government shutdown situation and the divergence in the market's expectations for interest rate cuts. However, the expected interest rate cuts and safe-haven sentiment may support the prices in the medium term [18][19] Energy and Chemicals - PVC: The market is expected to trade in a range. The high supply and weak domestic demand, along with the uncertain export sustainability, may keep the PVC market in a weak position. However, the low valuation and potential policy and cost disturbances may limit the downward space [20][21] - Caustic Soda: The market is expected to trade with a downward bias. The short-term supply pressure may be relieved by new maintenance, but the future increase in production and the weak demand may lead to a downward trend in prices. It is recommended to pay attention to the downstream stocking rhythm and export situation [22][23] - Styrene: The market is expected to trade in a range. The high inventory and limited demand may lead to a weak supply-demand situation. It is recommended to pay attention to factors such as oil prices, pure benzene production and imports, and macro data and policies [23][24] - Rubber: The market is expected to trade in a range. The strong raw material prices and positive macro sentiment may support the price, but the high inventory may limit the upward space. It is recommended to pay attention to factors such as inventory changes and downstream demand [25] - Urea: The market is expected to trade in a range. The increase in maintenance devices and the improvement in agricultural and industrial demand may support the price, but the high inventory may limit the upward space. It is recommended to pay attention to factors such as supply and demand changes and export situations [26][27] - Methanol: The market is expected to trade in a range. The decrease in production capacity utilization and the increase in demand from the methanol-to-olefins industry may support the price, but the high inventory may limit the upward space. It is recommended to pay attention to factors such as macro changes, device maintenance, and coal prices [28][29] - Polyolefins: The market is expected to trade with a downward bias. The expected increase in supply and the slow recovery of demand may lead to a downward trend in prices. It is recommended to pay attention to factors such as downstream demand, Fed interest rate cuts, and Sino-US trade relations [29][30] - Soda Ash: It is recommended to take a short position on the 01 contract. The supply surplus and weak demand may lead to a downward trend in prices. It is recommended to pay attention to factors such as supply and demand changes and cost pressures [33][34] Cotton Textile Industry Chain - Cotton and Cotton Yarn: The market is expected to trade with a slight upward bias. The increase in global cotton production and consumption, along with the progress of Sino-US trade negotiations, may support the price [35] - PTA: The market is expected to trade in a range. The weak supply-demand situation and the high inventory may lead to a downward trend in prices. It is recommended to pay attention to factors such as oil prices and supply and demand changes [35][36] - Apples: The market is expected to trade with a slight upward bias. The stable market situation in the western regions and the increase in demand may support the price. It is recommended to pay attention to factors such as production and quality changes [36] - Red Dates: The market is expected to trade in a range. The stable market price and the expected increase in supply may lead to a stable price trend. It is recommended to pay attention to factors such as new-season listing and price changes [37][38] Agriculture and Animal Husbandry - Hogs: The market is expected to face pressure on the upside. The current supply is relatively loose, and the intervention of secondary fattening may shift the supply pressure to the future. It is recommended to take a short position on the 01, 03, and 05 contracts in the medium term and pay attention to the supply and demand changes and capacity reduction [39][40] - Eggs: The market is expected to face pressure on the upside. The current supply is relatively large, and the seasonal decline in demand may limit the upward space of egg prices. It is recommended to take a short position on the 12 contract on rallies and hold a wait-and-see stance on the 01 contract [41][42] - Corn: The market is expected to trade with a downward bias. The increase in new grain supply and the weak demand may lead to a downward trend in prices. It is recommended to take a short position on the 01 contract on rallies and pay attention to factors such as policy and weather changes [43][44] - Soybean Meal: The market is expected to rebound from a low level. The increase in soybean imports and the improvement in demand may support the price. It is recommended to hold long positions on the M2601 contract and pay attention to the Sino-US trade relations and soybean procurement [46][47] - Oils: The market is expected to experience a high-level adjustment. The short-term pressure on the price is due to factors such as the increase in palm oil production and the weak demand. However, the potential supply shortage and the positive signals from Sino-US and Sino-Canadian relations may support the price in the medium term. It is recommended to pay attention to the support levels of the 01 contracts of soybean, palm, and rapeseed oils and the spread between soybean and palm oils [48][49][54]
期货市场交易指引：2025年10月30日-20251030
Chang Jiang Qi Huo·2025-10-30 05:18