10月FOMC点评：美联储转鹰增加变数

Group 1: Overall Information - The report is titled "Fed Turns Hawkish, Adding Uncertainty - October FOMC Review" and is published by Huatai Research on October 30, 2025 [1] Group 2: FOMC Meeting Summary - The Fed cut the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 3.75%-4.00% at the October FOMC meeting and will stop quantitative tightening on December 1. Two members voted against the decision, showing internal disagreement [2] - Economic activity is expanding at a moderate pace. Employment growth has slowed this year, and the unemployment rate has risen slightly but remains low as of August. Inflation is still relatively high [2] Group 3: Powell's Press Conference - Powell stated that a December rate cut is not a given. The committee has not decided on December's policy and will make a judgment based on data, economic outlook, and risk balance. There are significant differences among members due to inflation risks and employment risks [3] - The Fed decided to end QT on December 1 because the money market pressure has reached the target level, with rising repo rates and the federal funds rate [3] - AI investment is insensitive to interest rates and is based on long - term judgments. The Fed is monitoring the rise in sub - prime auto loan defaults but has not found it to be a widespread credit problem [4] - The K - shaped economy has been included in the economic assessment. There is a certain correlation between the stock market and consumption, but a stock market decline may not lead to an equal - dollar decline in consumption [4][5] Group 4: Market Performance - After the hawkish remarks, interest - sensitive assets generally adjusted. US Treasury yields rose significantly, and technology stocks and copper performed relatively strongly. The US dollar index rose, and non - US currencies mostly fell [6] - As of the close on the day, the 2 - year US Treasury yield rose 11 basis points to 3.60%, and the 10 - year yield rose 10 basis points to 4.08%. US stocks closed mixed, with the Nasdaq up 0.55%, the S&P 500 flat, and the Dow down 0.16%. The Russell 2000 index fell 0.87% [6] - As of October 30, the OIS market priced in a further 17.2bp rate cut this year, and the probability of a December rate cut dropped to 68.6% [6] Group 5: Future Policy Outlook - The Fed's rate - cut logic has shifted from risk management to data - driven. The threshold for a December rate cut has increased significantly, and a further weakening of the job market may be a necessary condition [7] - Stopping quantitative tightening is expected to ease short - term liquidity tensions. After the government shutdown ends, the TGA account funds may flow back to the market, injecting more liquidity [8] - The new Fed chair nominee may be announced this year. If Kevin Hassett is nominated, it may increase concerns about the Fed's independence and benefit gold. If Christopher Waller is nominated, it may trigger reverse trading [8] Group 6: Asset Allocation Outlook - For US Treasuries, short - term government shutdowns may cause fundamental pressure and increase yield volatility. The Fed's more cautious stance drives the yield curve to bear - flatten. In the long run, monetary policy may be "tight first and then loose" [9] - For US stocks, the Fed's hawkish turn has affected some interest - sensitive sectors, but AI remains the main line. In the medium term, the macro - environment is still favorable, but long - term risks such as central bank tightening and over - capacity need attention [10] - For other assets, before US employment data shows further weakness, most assets may face pressure on the denominator. The recent strength of the RMB exchange rate may limit the impact of rising US Treasury yields [10]