光大期货软商品日报（2025 年10月30日）-20251030

Group 1: Research Views - ICE cotton rose 1.38% to 65.95 cents/pound on Wednesday, CF601 rose 0.41% to 13,620 yuan/ton, and the main contract's open interest decreased by 596 lots to 578,500 lots. The spot price index of cotton 3128B was 14,535 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton from the previous day. The Fed cut interest rates by 25BP as expected, but Powell's hawkish remarks strengthened the US dollar. The upcoming meeting between Chinese and US leaders in South Korea is expected to support US cotton prices. In the domestic market, Zhengzhou cotton futures prices have rebounded, and the current position has strong support. Supply pressure will gradually ease, and the domestic cotton supply-demand pattern is not very loose this year. The market anticipates tariff policy adjustments. Overall, the macro and fundamental factors are likely to improve, and the bottom of Zhengzhou cotton is supported. The upward drive depends on whether there will be unexpected progress during the APEC meeting [1]. - Sugar spot quotes vary among regions, with some adjustments. The market focuses on the northern hemisphere's crushing progress, and the current price is difficult to reflect India's exports. Raw sugar has limited rebound potential due to expected increases in production in the northern hemisphere and Brazil in the 26/27 season. In China, the news of restricted imports of syrup and premixed powder continues to ferment, and the spot trading volume is average. The futures market faces risks in further rebounds and is expected to fluctuate widely. Attention should be paid to the news from the Chengdu Sugar Conference [1]. Group 2: Daily Data Monitoring - For cotton, the 1 - 5 contract spread is -5 with no change, the main contract basis is 1220, down 45. The Xinjiang spot price is 14,650 yuan/ton, down 1, and the national spot price is 14,840 yuan/ton, up 10 [2]. - For sugar, the 1 - 5 contract spread is 65, up 13, the main contract basis is 256, down 11. The Nanning and Liuzhou spot prices are both 5,750 yuan/ton with no change [2]. Group 3: Market Information - On October 29, the number of cotton futures warehouse receipts was 2,471, down 17 from the previous day, and the valid forecast was 882 [3]. - On October 29, the arrival prices of cotton in different regions were: 14,650 yuan/ton in Xinjiang, 14,871 yuan/ton in Henan, 14,884 yuan/ton in Shandong, and 14,956 yuan/ton in Zhejiang [3]. - On October 29, the comprehensive load of yarn was 51.2, unchanged from the previous day; the comprehensive inventory of yarn was 26.2, unchanged; the comprehensive load of staple fiber cloth was 51.9, unchanged; and the comprehensive inventory of staple fiber cloth was 29.9, up 0.1 [3]. - On October 29, the spot prices of sugar were 5,750 yuan/ton in Nanning and 5,750 yuan/ton in Liuzhou, both unchanged from the previous day [3]. - On October 29, the number of sugar futures warehouse receipts was 7,625, down 70 from the previous day, and the valid forecast was 586 [4]. Group 4: Research Team - Zhang Xiaojin is the director of resource product research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, focusing on the sugar industry. She has won multiple awards, including the "Best Agricultural Product Analyst" and the "Best Agricultural and Sideline Products Chief Futures Analyst" [18]. - Zhang Linglu, a master of accounting and finance from the University of Bristol, is a resource product analyst at Everbright Futures Research Institute, responsible for researching futures varieties such as urea and soda ash glass. She has won many honors [19]. - Sun Chengzhen, a financial master from Yunnan University, is a resource product analyst at Everbright Futures Research Institute, engaged in fundamental research and data analysis of varieties such as cotton, cotton yarn, and ferroalloys. He won the title of senior analyst in textiles at the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange in 2024 [20].