光大期货有色商品日报-20251030

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Copper: Overnight LME and domestic copper prices were oscillating upward, hitting record - highs. The domestic refined copper spot import window remained closed. After the Fed's October interest - rate cut, Powell's hawkish stance led to internal Fed differences on a December cut. The end of balance - sheet reduction was seen as maintaining a loose liquidity environment. With geopolitical and economic factors improving, 2026 may see a copper shortage, and copper prices may rise steadily. However, there is a divergence between expected and actual copper demand in Q4 [1]. - Aluminum: Overnight, alumina,沪铝, and aluminum alloy all showed an upward - oscillating trend. Alumina factory profits were further compressed, with high - cost capacity occasionally reducing production. Overseas supply disruptions and increased domestic molten aluminum supply led to a contraction in aluminum ingot supply and smooth de - stocking. Attention should be paid to the impact of the Fed's rate cut and downstream sentiment on whether aluminum prices can stay above 21,000 yuan/ton and continue to rise [2]. - Nickel: Overnight, LME nickel rose while沪镍 fell. Nickel ore was relatively stable. In the nickel - iron - stainless steel industry chain, nickel - iron prices declined, and stainless - steel inventory decreased slightly. In the new - energy industry chain, raw - material prices were tight. With increasing LME and SHFE nickel inventories, nickel prices oscillated, and attention should be paid to macro and inventory conditions [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - Copper: LME copper inventories increased by 775 tons to 135,350 tons; Comex copper decreased by 1,547 tons to 314,490 tons; SHFE copper warehouse receipts decreased by 101 tons to 35,745 tons, and BC copper remained at 10,960 tons. High copper prices made downstream procurement cautious [1]. - Aluminum: AO2601 closed at 2,864 yuan/ton, up 0.7%, with positions increasing by 16,652 lots to 394,000 lots. AL2512 closed at 21,315 yuan/ton, up 0.28%, with positions increasing by 1,871 lots to 281,000 lots. AD2512 closed at 20,810 yuan/ton, up 0.43%, with positions increasing by 548 lots to 13,058 lots. SMM alumina prices dropped to 2,874 yuan/ton, and the aluminum ingot spot discount was 30 yuan/ton [2]. - Nickel: LME nickel rose 1.05% to $15,405/ton, while沪镍 fell 0.36% to 121,460 yuan/ton. LME inventories increased by 270 tons to 251,706 tons, and domestic SHFE warehouse receipts increased by 48 tons to 31,433 tons. The LME 0 - 3 month premium remained negative, and the imported nickel premium was 400 yuan/ton [2]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - Copper: On October 29, 2025, the price of flat - water copper was 87,730 yuan/ton, down 145 yuan from the previous day; the flat - water copper premium was - 95 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; 1 bright scrap copper in Guangdong was 78,500 yuan/ton, down 300 yuan; the refined - scrap price difference in Guangdong was 3,785 yuan/ton, down 69 yuan [3]. - Lead: On October 29, 2025, the average price of 1 lead in the Changjiang Non - ferrous market was 17,250 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan; the 1 lead ingot premium in East China was - 210 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan [3]. - Aluminum: On October 29, 2025, the Wuxi quotation was 21,180 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan; the Nanhai quotation was 21,070 yuan/ton, unchanged; the Nanhai - Wuxi price difference was - 110 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan; the spot premium was - 30 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan [4]. - Nickel: On October 29, 2025, the price of Jinchuan nickel plates was 123,200 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan; the Jinchuan nickel - Wuxi price difference was 2,500 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; the 1 imported nickel - Wuxi price difference was 600 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan [4]. - Zinc: On October 29, 2025, the main settlement price was 22,395 yuan/ton, up 0.1%; the LmeS3 price was $2,505.5/ton, unchanged; the domestic spot premium average was - 50 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan [6]. - Tin: On October 29, 2025, the main settlement price was 286,250 yuan/ton, up 0.5%; the LmeS3 price was $27,540/ton, down 2.1%; the domestic spot premium average was 400 yuan/ton, unchanged [6]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - Spot Premium: The report provides charts of spot premiums for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [8][10][11]. - SHFE Near - Far Month Spread: Charts of the SHFE near - far month spreads for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2020 - 2025 are presented [15][20][21]. - LME Inventory: Charts of LME inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 are included [23][25][27]. - SHFE Inventory: Charts of SHFE inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 are provided [29][31][33]. - Social Inventory: Charts of social inventories for copper (including bonded areas), aluminum, nickel, zinc, stainless steel, and 300 - series stainless steel from 2019 - 2025 are shown [35][37][39]. - Smelting Profit: Charts of the copper concentrate index, rough - copper processing fee, aluminum smelting profit, nickel - iron smelting cost, zinc smelting profit, and stainless - steel 304 smelting profit rate from 2019 - 2025 are presented [41][44][46]. 3.4 Team Introduction - The research team consists of Zhan Dapeng, Wang Heng, and Zhu Xi. Zhan Dapeng is the director of non - ferrous research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, with over a decade of commodity research experience. Wang Heng focuses on aluminum - silicon research, and Zhu Xi focuses on lithium - nickel research [49][50].