中辉能化观点-20251030

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Cautiously bearish on crude oil, LPG, L, PP, ethylene glycol, methanol, urea, and natural gas [1][3][6] - Bearish consolidation on L and PP [1] - Bearish rebound on PVC, glass, and soda ash [1][6] - Cautiously bullish on PX and PTA [1][3] Core Views - The core drivers of the oil market are the supply surplus in the off - season and macro - positive factors, with the oil price center expected to decline [9]. - LPG is affected by the cost - end oil price correction and the low basis, with the price likely to correct [14]. - L and PP face cost support weakening and high inventory pressure, with bearish consolidation trends [19][24]. - PVC has low - valuation support but faces supply - demand surplus contradictions, with a bearish rebound situation [28]. - PX has short - term supply - demand improvement but limited cost - end rebound height, with opportunities for both long and short positions [30][31]. - PTA has slightly improved supply and demand, but the medium - and long - term supply is expected to be loose, with short - term rebound opportunities [33][34]. - Ethylene glycol has a low valuation but lacks upward drivers, with a short - term weakening trend [36][37]. - Methanol has high inventory pressure, but there are opportunities to go long on the 01 contract at low prices [40][42]. - Urea has a relatively loose supply, with short - term upward pressure and long - term opportunities to go long at low prices [44][46]. Summaries by Variety Crude Oil - Market Review: Overnight international oil prices rebounded slightly, with WTI up 0.55%, Brent up 0.77%, and SC down 1.54% [8]. - Basic Logic: Sanctions on Russia and macro - positive factors support the oil price, but the core driver is the supply surplus in the off - season, and the oil price center is expected to decline [9]. - Fundamentals: OPEC+ may increase production in December, Indian oil imports increased in September, and US commercial crude inventories decreased last week [10]. - Strategy: Hold previous short positions and consider adding short positions lightly. Focus on the SC range of [455 - 470] [11]. LPG - Market Review: On October 29, the PG main contract closed at 4,287 yuan/ton, up 0.61% [13]. - Basic Logic: The price is anchored to the cost - end oil price. The short - term geopolitical risk has eased, and the cost - end has corrected. The basis is at a low level [14]. - Strategy: Try short positions lightly. Focus on the PG range of [4250 - 4350] [15]. L - Market Review: The L2601 contract closed at 7,009 yuan/ton, up 24 yuan [18]. - Basic Logic: Cost support is weakening, supply is loose, and demand replenishment power is insufficient [19]. - Strategy: The industry sells hedges at high prices, and short positions are preferred at high prices in the high - production cycle. Focus on the L range of [6950 - 7100] [19]. PP - Market Review: The PP2601 contract closed at 6,691 yuan/ton, up 72 yuan [23]. - Basic Logic: The basis is weakening, upstream device maintenance has increased, but the demand side faces high de - stocking pressure, and oil - based cost support is insufficient [24]. - Strategy: The industry sells hedges at high prices, and short positions are followed by short - term cost rebounds. Focus on the PP range of [6600 - 6800] [24]. PVC - Market Review: The V2601 contract closed at 4,719 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan [27]. - Basic Logic: Low - valuation support exists, but the supply - demand surplus contradiction is prominent. Attention should be paid to whether upstream marginal devices can reduce production [28]. - Strategy: The industry conducts hedging at high prices, and short - term long positions can be lightly participated in. Focus on the V range of [4600 - 4800] [28]. PX - Market Review: The PX futures price showed an upward trend [29]. - Basic Logic: Supply - side devices have reduced their loads, demand has improved recently but is expected to weaken, and the cost - end oil price rebound is limited [30]. - Strategy: Try long positions lightly in the short term, pay attention to short - selling opportunities at high prices, and focus on expanding downstream processing fees. Focus on the PX range of [6620 - 6720] [31]. PTA - Market Review: The PTA futures price showed a slight increase [32]. - Basic Logic: New device production is imminent, but processing fees are low, and the supply - side pressure is expected to ease. Terminal demand has improved slightly but is unstable, and there is an inventory accumulation expectation in November [33]. - Strategy: Chase long positions lightly in the short term, focus on short - selling opportunities during rebounds in the medium and long term, and focus on expanding TA processing fees. Focus on the TA range of [4610 - 4680] [34]. Ethylene Glycol - Market Review: The ethylene glycol futures price showed a decline [35]. - Basic Logic: Domestic devices have reduced their loads, overseas devices have increased their loads slightly, supply pressure is expected to increase, and there is an inventory accumulation expectation in November. The valuation is low but lacks upward drivers [36]. - Strategy: Participate in short - term long positions lightly and pay attention to short - selling opportunities during rebounds. Focus on the EG range of [4060 - 4140] [37]. Methanol - Market Review: High inventory suppresses the spot price [40]. - Basic Logic: Supply - side pressure is still high, demand has improved slightly, and cost support is weak and stable. Pay attention to the impact of Iranian "gas restrictions" [40]. - Strategy: Hold short positions cautiously, focus on going long on the 01 contract at low prices, and focus on MA1 - 5 reverse spreads. Focus on the MA range of [2235 - 2285] [42]. Urea - Market Review: The urea futures price showed a slight increase [43]. - Basic Logic: Supply is relatively loose, demand has improved slightly, inventory is accumulating, and cost support exists. Be vigilant against downward risks [44]. - Strategy: Hold short positions cautiously, and try long positions lightly in the medium and long term. Focus on the UR range of [1635 - 1660] [46].