原油日报：APEC会议展开，关注中美相关议题-20251030

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The APEC meeting in South Korea has made Sino - US related issues the focus of the market. Key issues related to crude oil include the cancellation of US sanctions on Chinese entities, exemptions or licenses for China's procurement of Russian oil, and the resumption of China's procurement of US crude oil. The most crucial point is whether there will be a breakthrough in Sino - US trade negotiations to improve the macro - sentiment. The short - term oil price is expected to fluctuate within a range, and a medium - term short - position allocation is recommended [2][3]. 3. Summary by Directory Market News and Important Data - The price of light crude oil futures for December delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 33 cents to $60.48 per barrel, a 0.55% increase; the price of Brent crude oil futures for December delivery rose 52 cents to $64.92 per barrel, a 0.81% increase. The SC crude oil main contract closed up 1.28% at 465 yuan per barrel [1]. - As of the week ending October 25, Japan's commercial crude oil inventory decreased by 377,644 kiloliters to 10,027,202 kiloliters, gasoline inventory decreased by 16,721 kiloliters to 1,603,954 kiloliters, and kerosene inventory decreased by 91,715 kiloliters to 2,742,806 kiloliters. The average refinery operating rate was 91.2%, up from 86.2% the previous week [1]. - Ukrainian President Zelensky announced the establishment of an energy alliance. He expects that Ukraine's long - range strikes on Russia have reduced fuel by 22 - 27% and caused a loss of over 20% in refining capacity [1]. - China's first national onshore shale oil demonstration area in Xinjiang's Jimsar has an annual output exceeding 1.5 million tons for the first time this year, marking a new stage of large - scale and stable production in China's shale oil development [1]. Investment Logic The APEC meeting in South Korea has drawn market attention to Sino - US related issues in the crude oil market. The core is whether there will be a breakthrough in Sino - US trade negotiations to improve the overall macro - sentiment [2]. Strategy The short - term oil price is expected to fluctuate within a range, and a medium - term short - position allocation is recommended [3]. Risk - Downside risks include the US relaxing sanctions on Russian oil and macro black - swan events [3]. - Upside risks include the US tightening sanctions on Russian oil, a breakthrough in Sino - US trade negotiations, and large - scale supply disruptions due to conflicts in the Middle East [3].