农产品日报：宏观情绪缓和，棉价偏强震荡-20251030

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - All three industries (cotton, sugar, and pulp) are rated neutral [2][4][8] Group 2: Report Core Views - The global cotton market's supply - demand pattern is expected to be loose in the new year, with short - term external market pressure and long - term focus on US cotton production and export. The domestic cotton market has low initial inventory but new supply. Short - term cotton price increase is limited, while long - term is optimistic [2] - The global sugar market may be in a bear cycle in the 25/26 season. Brazilian sugar supply is strong in the short - term, and the Zhengzhou sugar futures have limited upward and downward space in the short - term [4][5] - The pulp market has a supply - demand imbalance. Supply remains loose, and demand is weak. Pulp prices are expected to continue low - level fluctuations [7][8] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Cotton Market News and Key Data - Futures: Cotton 2601 contract closed at 13,620 yuan/ton yesterday, up 55 yuan/ton (+0.41%) from the previous day. Spot: Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 14,650 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan/ton; national average price was 14,840 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton. In September, Bangladesh imported about 152,000 tons of cotton, a 14.4% increase from August and 5.9% from the previous year [1] Market Analysis - Internationally, the global cotton market's supply - demand is expected to be loose, with short - term external market pressure due to supply and demand issues. Domestically, old - season cotton inventory is low, but new supply is increasing. Short - term cotton price increase is limited by hedging and weak demand, while long - term is affected by low initial inventory and consumption resilience [2] Strategy - Neutral. Short - term, there is a possibility of a callback; long - term, cotton prices are optimistic [2] Sugar Market News and Key Data - Futures: Sugar 2601 contract closed at 5494 yuan/ton yesterday, up 11 yuan/ton (+0.20%) from the previous day. Spot: Guangxi Nanning sugar price was 5750 yuan/ton, unchanged; Yunnan Kunming price was 5720 yuan/ton, unchanged. It is estimated that in mid - October in Brazil's central - southern region, sugarcane crushing will be 33.42 million tons (down 1.5% year - on - year), sugar production 2.47 million tons (up 0.6% year - on - year), and ethanol production 1.973 billion liters (down 3.1% year - on - year) [3] Market Analysis - The Brazilian sugar supply is strong in the short - term, and the global sugar market may be in a bear cycle. The Zhengzhou sugar futures have limited upward and downward space in the short - term due to sufficient domestic supply and weak external market [4][5] Strategy - Neutral. Short - term, follow the weak external market; pay attention to the support at around 5400 [5] Pulp Market News and Key Data - Futures: Pulp 2601 contract closed at 5242 yuan/ton yesterday, up 16 yuan/ton (+0.31%) from the previous day. Spot: Shandong's Chilean silver star coniferous pulp price was 5500 yuan/ton, unchanged; Russian needle pulp price was 4985 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton. Imported wood pulp spot prices were mostly stable with some fluctuations [5][6] Market Analysis - The pulp market's supply remains loose, and demand is weak both at home and abroad. The traditional peak season has not seen strong demand [7] Strategy - Neutral. Pulp prices are expected to continue low - level fluctuations, and attention should be paid to the actual demand in the fourth - quarter peak season [8]