Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - For soybeans and soybean meal, the global soybean supply is expected to remain loose, and it is advisable to sell on rallies. For palm oil, it is recommended to view it as oscillating weakly before the export of Malaysian palm oil improves. For sugar, it is suggested to wait for the weakening of the rebound strength and then look for opportunities to short. For cotton, the upward space of cotton prices is expected to be relatively limited in the short term. For eggs, it is advisable to wait and see. For pigs, it is recommended to establish reverse hedging positions on rallies in the medium term and short gradually after reaching the pressure level [2][4][7][10][13][16][19]. Summary by Related Catalogs Protein Meal Market Information - Overnight, CBOT soybeans declined. The price increase triggered hedging by US farmers, and the Brazilian premium decreased slightly, with the import cost rising slightly. On Wednesday, the domestic soybean meal spot price rose slightly by 20 yuan, with the East China price reported at 2910 yuan/ton. The trading volume of soybean meal was 53,500 tons, and the提货 volume was 198,800 tons. MYSTEEL statistics show that the inventory days of domestic feed enterprises increased by 0.03 days to 7.95 days last week. The soybean meal inventory of oil mills increased, and the soybean inventory decreased month - on - month, with the total inventory being high and in a slight de - stocking trend. MYSTEEL expects the domestic soybean crushing volume of oil mills to be 2.3392 million tons this week, compared with 2.3674 million tons last week. As of last Thursday, the sowing rate of soybeans in Brazil's 2025/26 season has reached 36% of the expected level, and the rainfall in the main planting areas of Brazil is at a neutral level [2]. Strategy View - In terms of import cost, there are recent signals in the market that China may import US soybeans, but the rise in US soybeans may be offset by the decline in the Brazilian premium, and the import cost will mainly oscillate. The domestic soybean inventory is at the highest level in recent years, the soybean meal inventory is large, and the crushing profit is under pressure. The expectation of loose global soybean supply remains unchanged, and it is still advisable to sell on rallies [4]. Oils Market Information - ITS and AMSPEC data show that Malaysia's palm oil exports from October 1 - 10 increased by 9.86% - 19.37% compared with the same period last month, the exports in the first 15 days increased by 12.3% - 16.2%, the exports in the first 20 days increased by 3.4%, and the exports in the first 25 days decreased by 0.4%. SPPOMA data show that Malaysia's palm oil production from October 1 - 15 increased by 6.86% month - on - month compared with the same period last month, the production in the first 20 days increased by 2.71%, and the production in the first 25 days increased by 1.63%. Indonesia said that due to good weather, the palm oil production in 2025 may increase by 10%. On Wednesday, domestic oils declined. The recent high production of palm oil in Malaysia and Indonesia suppressed the market. Indonesia's August production data still significantly exceeded previous years, and the expectation of tight supply in the first quarter of next year has been loosened due to the current high - yield situation. There are also rumors that local Indonesia is calling for a suspension of the implementation of B50 in 2026. The domestic spot basis is stable at a low level [5]. Strategy View - The unexpected high production of palm oil in Malaysia and Indonesia suppresses the performance of the palm oil market. The current situation of large supply and inventory accumulation of palm oil may reverse in the fourth quarter and the first quarter of next year. If Indonesia's current high production cannot continue, the de - stocking time point may come earlier. However, if Indonesia maintains its recent high - yield record, palm oil will continue to be weak. Strategically, it is recommended to view it as oscillating weakly before the export of Malaysian palm oil improves [7]. Sugar Market Information - On Wednesday, the Zhengzhou sugar futures price oscillated strongly. The closing price of the January contract of Zhengzhou sugar was reported at 5494 yuan/ton, up 11 yuan/ton or 0.2% from the previous trading day. In terms of spot, the quotation of Guangxi sugar - making groups is 5660 - 5760 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day; the quotation of Yunnan sugar - making groups is 5600 - 5640 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day; the mainstream quotation range of processing sugar mills is 5790 - 5920 yuan/ton, with the quotation rising or falling differently from the previous trading day; the basis of Guangxi spot - Zhengzhou sugar main contract (sr2601) is 165 yuan/ton. The General Administration of Customs announced Order No. 280 on October 14, 2025, "Regulations on the Registration of Overseas Food Production Enterprises for Import by Customs". The new regulations change the registration of overseas food enterprises from "prior approval" to "automatic renewal + dynamic revocation", strengthen the regulatory responsibilities of overseas official agencies, and achieve "loose entry and strict management". Recently, the number of enterprises whose import of Thai syrup and premixed powder has been suspended by customs has increased from 35 to 44, and only 16 are effectively left. The scope of suspended imports has been expanded from under tariff number 170290 to under tariff number 2106906 [9]. Strategy View - In the short term, the tightening of import control on syrup and premixed powder has driven the rebound of Zhengzhou sugar prices. However, since September, the data of sugarcane crushing volume and sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil have been bearish, and the raw sugar price has continued to decline. Moreover, entering the 2025/26 new crushing season, it is currently estimated that there will be an increase in production in the Northern Hemisphere, and the upward space of raw sugar is limited, resulting in a large profit margin for out - of - quota imports. It is recommended to wait for the weakening of the rebound strength and then look for opportunities to short [10]. Cotton Market Information - On Wednesday, the Zhengzhou cotton futures price oscillated strongly. The closing price of the January contract of Zhengzhou cotton was reported at 13620 yuan/ton, up 55 yuan/ton or 0.41% from the previous trading day. In terms of spot, the China Cotton Price Index (CCIndex) 3128B was reported at 14840 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The basis of China Cotton Price Index (CCIndex) 3128B - Zhengzhou cotton main contract (CF2601) is 1220 yuan/ton. On October 28, the purchase index of machine - picked cotton in Xinjiang was 6.30 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous day; the purchase index of hand - picked cotton was 7.05 yuan/kg, down 0.01 yuan/kg from the previous day. According to the latest data released by Mysteel, as of the week of October 24, the operating rate of spinning mills was 65.6%, unchanged from the previous week, 7.4 percentage points lower than the same period last year, and 9.6 percentage points lower than the average of the past five years [12]. Strategy View - Fundamentally, the demand was weak during the peak consumption season this year, and the operating rate of the downstream industrial chain declined significantly compared with the same period in previous years. Moreover, there is an expectation of a bumper harvest in the new year in China, and the pressure of selling for hedging is large. Recently, the continuous small increase in the purchase price of new cotton has driven the rebound of Zhengzhou cotton, but the fundamentals are still weak, and the upward space of cotton prices is expected to be relatively limited in the short term [13]. Eggs Market Information - The national egg price was stable or declined. The average price of eggs in the main producing areas dropped 0.06 yuan to 2.88 yuan/jin. The price in Heishan remained at 2.9 yuan/jin, and the price in Guantao remained at 2.67 yuan/jin. The supply was relatively stable. Most breeding units actively sold their goods, while terminal purchases were relatively cautious, and the overall trading volume in the market decreased. The national egg price may be stable or decline today [15]. Strategy View - There is still an expectation of a rebound in the spot price, but the space may be limited due to the high supply. The focus of the futures market game is whether the increase in the spot price can cover the premium of the futures. Currently, it is the traditional stocking season for eggs, and the downward space of the spot price is limited. However, in terms of driving force, there is an expectation of a small increase but no large - scale increase. The open interest in the futures market is high, and it is judged that the market is bottoming out, but the space is not optimistic, and the rhythm may be repeated. It is advisable to wait and see [16]. Pigs Market Information - Yesterday, the domestic pig price rose and fell differently. The average price in Henan dropped 0.08 yuan to 12.67 yuan/kg, the average price in Sichuan rose 0.07 yuan to 12.34 yuan/kg, and the average price in Guangxi rose 0.3 yuan to 12.48 yuan/kg. The breeding side in the southern market may continue to reduce the supply, and the price may rise again. The purchasing enthusiasm of downstream in the northern market declined. Today, in order to ensure smooth sales, the breeding side may choose to lower the selling price [18]. Strategy View - Currently, the slaughter scale and the theoretical future slaughter volume are still high, and the decline in weight during this round of price drop is limited. In the medium term, under the relatively high supply pressure, the pig price may still be more likely to fall than to rise. In the short term, there is a resonance affected by multiple factors, and the factors supporting the rebound of the spot price still exist. In the context of high open interest, the futures market is easily affected by the change in driving force and may fluctuate repeatedly. It is judged that there will be a short - term rebound. In the medium term, it is advisable to gradually establish reverse hedging positions on rallies and short gradually after reaching the pressure level [19].
五矿期货农产品早报-20251030
Wu Kuang Qi Huo·2025-10-30 05:17