NEWLAND(SZ:000997) Haitong Securities International·2025-10-30 05:29Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company, expecting a relative performance exceeding the benchmark index by over 10% in the next 12-18 months [4][9]. Core Insights - The company is projected to have a net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 1.28 billion for 2025, with adjustments to RMB 1.57 billion and RMB 1.91 billion for 2026 and 2027 respectively. The EPS forecasts for 2025-2027 are RMB 1.26, RMB 1.55, and RMB 1.89 [4][9]. - The target price is set at RMB 38.71, based on a 25x PE ratio for 2026, referencing comparable companies [4][9]. - In Q3 2025, the company reported a revenue increase of 14.86% year-on-year, with a net profit attributable to shareholders rising by 29.77% year-on-year [4][9]. - For the first three quarters of 2025, total revenue reached RMB 62.44 billion, up 12.04% year-on-year, while net profit attributable to shareholders was RMB 9.18 billion, an increase of 12.15% year-on-year [4][9]. - The gross profit margin (GPM) for Q3 was 35.71%, a slight decrease of 0.25 percentage points year-on-year, but showed recovery from Q2 due to improved market conditions [4][9]. Financial Summary - The company’s total revenue is projected to grow from RMB 8.25 billion in 2023 to RMB 11.705 billion by 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 18.3% [3][4]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to increase significantly from RMB 1.004 billion in 2023 to RMB 1.913 billion in 2027, indicating a CAGR of 22% [3][4]. - The sales gross margin is expected to improve from 35.2% in 2023 to 42.5% by 2027, demonstrating operational efficiency [3][4]. Business Performance - The merchant operation services segment recorded a transaction volume of RMB 16.2 trillion in the first three quarters, with Q3 alone contributing nearly RMB 570 billion, marking an over 18% year-on-year growth [4][9]. - The smart terminal sector achieved over 26% year-on-year growth in overseas payment equipment revenue in Q3, indicating strong market penetration in emerging markets [4][9]. - The company launched an industry-specific AI model and has seen over 150,000 merchants trialing its AI marketing products, showcasing innovation in technology integration [4][9].