Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating in the given content. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On October 29th, industrial silicon showed a fluctuating and strengthening trend. The main contract 2601 closed at 9,170 yuan/ton, with an intraday increase of 1.61%. The position increased by 8,992 lots to 221,000 lots. The spot reference price of industrial silicon from Baichuan remained stable at 9,554 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The price of the lowest deliverable 421 remained stable at 8,850 yuan/ton, and the spot discount widened to 330 yuan/ton. Southwest production cuts are imminent, silicon factories are holding onto their goods and raising prices, and the costs of silicon coal and electricity are rising, causing the operating center of industrial silicon to move upward [2]. - Polysilicon also showed a fluctuating and strengthening trend. The main contract 2601 closed at 54,990 yuan/ton, with an intraday increase of 0.72%. The position increased by 3,498 lots to 118,000 lots. The price of N-type recycled polysilicon materials rose to 52,500 yuan/ton, and the price of the lowest deliverable silicon materials was 52,500 yuan/ton. The spot premium turned into a discount of 860 yuan/ton. Due to the quota arrangement of the industry association, silicon wafer production cuts after November are basically certain. The weekly silicon wafer production schedule has increased significantly. The current high output is more likely to be a stage of concentrated pre - quota production rush by enterprises, and it cannot be confirmed as a signal of actual demand improvement. The last week of October may be the sprint stage for industrial production rush. Recently, the industry has announced that 17 enterprises have signed the capacity storage platform, and combined with the fact that downstream purchases have exceeded upstream output for the first time, it supports the continued strong operation of polysilicon [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Research Views - Industrial silicon and polysilicon both showed a fluctuating and strengthening trend on October 29th. The reasons for the upward movement of industrial silicon include production cuts in the Southwest, silicon factories holding onto goods and raising prices, and rising costs of silicon coal and electricity. For polysilicon, factors such as industry quota arrangements, production rush, and the capacity storage platform signing support its strong operation [2]. Daily Data Monitoring - Industrial Silicon: The futures settlement price of the main contract increased from 8,955 yuan/ton on October 28th to 9,170 yuan/ton on October 29th, an increase of 215 yuan/ton. Most of the spot prices remained stable, with only the price of oxygen - containing 553 silicon in Huangpu Port increasing by 50 yuan/ton. The current lowest deliverable price remained at 8,850 yuan/ton, and the spot discount widened by 200 yuan/ton. The industrial silicon warehouse receipts decreased by 706 tons, and the Guangzhou Futures Exchange inventory decreased by 8,935 tons. The total social inventory of industrial silicon increased by 400 tons [3]. - Polysilicon: The futures settlement price of the main contract increased from 54,355 yuan/ton on October 28th to 54,990 yuan/ton on October 29th, an increase of 635 yuan/ton. The price of N - type polysilicon dense materials and recycled materials decreased by 500 yuan/ton. The current lowest deliverable price decreased by 500 yuan/ton, and the spot premium turned into a discount, with a decrease of 1,015 yuan/ton. The polysilicon warehouse receipts decreased by 30 tons, and the Guangzhou Futures Exchange inventory increased by 24,000 tons [3]. - Organic Silicon: The DMC price in the East China market decreased by 200 yuan/ton, the price of dimethyl silicone oil increased by 1,700 yuan/ton, and the prices of raw rubber and 107 glue remained stable [3]. Chart Analysis - Industrial Silicon and Cost - side Prices: The charts show the prices of different grades of industrial silicon, price differences between grades and regions, electricity prices, silica prices, and refined coal prices [5][12]. - Downstream Product Prices: The charts display the prices of DMC, organic silicon products, polysilicon, silicon wafers, battery cells, and components [14][16][21]. - Inventory: The charts present the inventory of industrial silicon (including futures inventory, factory warehouse inventory, weekly industry inventory, and inventory changes), DMC weekly inventory, and polysilicon weekly inventory [22][26]. - Cost - Profit: The charts show the average cost and profit levels of main production areas, weekly cost - profit of industrial silicon, profit of the aluminum alloy processing industry, cost - profit of DMC, and cost - profit of polysilicon [30][32][37].
工业硅、多晶硅日报-20251030
Guang Da Qi Huo·2025-10-30 05:28