宏源期货品种策略日报：油脂油料-20251030

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints - The report predicts that PX, PTA, and PR will experience narrow - range fluctuations. The PX view is scored 0, the PTA view is scored 0, and the PR view is scored 0 [2] Summary by Related Catalogs Price Information - Upstream: On October 29, 2025, the futures settlement price of WTI crude oil was $60.48 per barrel, up 0.55%; Brent crude oil was $64.92 per barrel, up 0.81%. The spot price of naphtha CFR Japan was $571.13 per ton, up 0.44%. The spot price of xylene (isomeric grade) FOB Korea was $681.00 per ton, up 0.22%. The spot price of PX CFR China Main Port was $818.00 per ton, up 0.49% [1] - PTA: The CZCE TA main - contract closing price was 4,636 yuan per ton, up 0.48%; the settlement price was 4,610 yuan per ton, down 0.09%. The domestic PTA spot price was 4,535 yuan per ton, down 0.04%. The CCFEI price index of PTA outer - market on October 28 was $601.00 per ton, down 2.12% [1] - PX: The CZCE PX main - contract closing price was 6,652 yuan per ton, up 0.51%; the settlement price was 6,614 yuan per ton, up 0.03%. The domestic PX spot price was 6,451 yuan per ton, down 1.13% [1] - PR: The CZCE PR main - contract closing price was 5,726 yuan per ton, up 0.25%; the settlement price was 5,710 yuan per ton, down 0.17%. The market price of polyester bottle - chips in the East China market was 5,740 yuan per ton, down 0.35%; in the South China market, it was 5,780 yuan per ton, down 0.34% [1] - Downstream: The CCFEI price index of polyester fiber DTY was 8,450 yuan per ton, up 0.30%; POY was 6,775 yuan per ton, up 0.37%; FDY68D was 6,950 yuan per ton, unchanged; FDY150D was 6,700 yuan per ton, unchanged; polyester staple fiber was 6,360 yuan per ton, up 0.08%; polyester chip was 5,605 yuan per ton, unchanged; bottle - grade chip was 5,740 yuan per ton, down 0.35% [2] Production and Sales - The production - sales ratio of polyester filament on October 29, 2025, was 48.87%, down 13.63 percentage points; polyester staple fiber was 43.57%, up 0.07 percentage points; polyester chip was 37.06%, down 20.55 percentage points [1] Operating Rate - On October 29, 2025, the operating rate of PX in the polyester industry chain was 86.21%, unchanged; the PTA industry chain load rate of PTA factories was 80.09%, up 0.63 percentage points; polyester factories was 89.28%, unchanged; bottle - chip factories was 73.31%, unchanged; Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms was 72.06%, up 0.20 percentage points [1] Device Information - The 2.7 - million - ton (design capacity) PTA device of Dushan Energy No. 4 started trial operation on October 25, 2025. After the new device runs stably, the new one will be put into operation and the old one will be shut down [2] Important News and Logic - PX: Overnight crude oil was weak. After short - term digestion of geopolitical and macro - emotions, there was no new positive news. The PX CFR China price on October 29 was $818 per ton, with cost - end oil prices fluctuating in a range. The domestic PX operating load remained high. The PTA main - supplier symposium was about to be held, and participants were still confident in the future supply - demand outlook. The PX2601 contract closed at 6,652 yuan per ton. Market rumors of a refinery's possible shutdown had no follow - up. Overseas devices were stable. The PX profit was expected to fluctuate stably in the short term [2] - PTA: The industry meeting continued to boost market sentiment. The TA2601 contract closed at 4,636 yuan per ton. Traders awaited PTA meeting news. Crude oil failed to recover losses. PTA prices fluctuated narrowly. Under the expectation of production cuts, the spot basis strengthened slightly. The new PTA device in East China started trial production. The anti - involution expectation offset the impact of new capacity. It might be difficult to coordinate new production - cut plans. The increase in the terminal loom operating rate and good polyester filament sales were positive for the market [2] - PR: The mainstream negotiation price of polyester bottle - chips in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang market was 5,710 - 5,830 yuan per ton, down 10 yuan per ton. The PTA and bottle - chip futures fluctuated, with a weak market atmosphere and low downstream purchasing willingness. The PR2601 contract closed at 5,726 yuan per ton. The bottle - chip market supply was relatively abundant, and downstream demand was weak [2]