Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the black (coking coal and coke) sector is "oscillating with a bearish bias" [1] Group 2: Core View of the Report - The coking coal spot auction price continues to be strong, and after the second - round price increase of coke spot was finalized, a third - round price increase was initiated. Although the Sino - US trade relations eased this week and the market sentiment improved, the demand growth points in the fourth quarter are limited, and the steel mill's hot metal output is already at a high level with little room for growth. Technically, coking coal has strong short - term bottom support and may break through upwards today after a period of range - bound trading. The near - month contract has broken through the previous high and the range resistance level, so short positions are advised to stop losses reasonably according to the position, and long positions can continue to hold. The next resistance level is 1330 [1] Group 3: Summary According to the Catalog Market Quotes - Yesterday, the main coking coal contract Jm2601 closed at 1302.0, up 4.83% compared with the opening of the day session; the main coke contract J2601 closed at 1801.0, up 3.06% compared with the opening of the day session. Last night, Jm2601 closed at 1303.5, up 0.12% compared with the close of the day session; the J2601 contract closed at 1801.0, flat compared with the close of the day session [1] Important News - The Chinese President Xi Jinping will hold a meeting with US President Trump in Busan, South Korea on October 30th to exchange views on Sino - US relations and issues of common concern. The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected, lowering the federal funds rate to 3.75% - 4.00%, the second rate cut this year, and announced the end of the balance - sheet reduction starting from December 1st. This week, the capacity utilization rate of 314 independent coal washing plants was 36.5%, a decrease of 0.41% compared with the previous period; the daily output of clean coal was 26.5 tons, a decrease of 0.2 tons compared with the previous period; the clean coal inventory was 284.4 tons, a decrease of 5.2 tons compared with the previous period [1] Market Logic - The coking coal spot auction price is strong, and coke spot initiates a third - round price increase after the second - round increase. Macroscopically, Sino - US trade relations have eased, but the fourth - quarter demand growth is limited, and steel mill's hot metal output has little room for growth. Attention should be paid to the traffic and inventory situation of Mongolian coal at Ganqimaodu Port to see if it can recover in the short term. Technically, coking coal has strong short - term bottom support and may break through upwards today after range - bound trading [1] Trading Strategy - The near - month contract has broken through the previous high and the range resistance level. Short positions are advised to stop losses reasonably according to the position, and long positions can continue to hold. The next resistance level is 1330 [1]
格林大华期货早盘提示：焦煤、焦炭-20251030
Ge Lin Qi Huo·2025-10-30 05:58