燃料油日报：高硫燃料油市场结构小幅转弱-20251030

Report Industry Investment Rating - High-sulfur fuel oil: Neutral, with a short-term focus on observation [2] - Low-sulfur fuel oil: Neutral, with a short-term focus on observation [2] - Cross-variety: None [2] - Cross-period: None [2] - Spot-futures: None [2] - Options: None [2] Core Viewpoints - The market structure of high-sulfur fuel oil has slightly weakened, and the market structure of low-sulfur fuel oil has been weak recently. The strength pattern of high and low sulfur has changed marginally, and the high-low sulfur spread has rebounded slightly from a low level [1] - After the continuous rebound of crude oil prices, resistance has emerged again, and the FU and LU disk prices have followed suit. Currently, there are still macro uncertainties, so caution is advised [1] - If there are no major problems with Russian supply, there is no shortage expectation in the high-sulfur fuel oil market, and the upward valuation space is limited [1] - With the restart of the RFCC unit of the Dangote refinery, the local supply pressure of low-sulfur fuel oil is expected to ease marginally [1] Market Analysis Summary - The main contract of the Shanghai Futures Exchange fuel oil futures closed down 1.2% at 2,796 yuan/ton, and the main contract of the INE low-sulfur fuel oil futures closed down 0.55% at 3,246 yuan/ton [1] - The fundamentals of fuel oil recently show a pattern of "high-sulfur stronger than low-sulfur", but the market structure of high-sulfur fuel oil has shown signs of slight weakness. While the unilateral price has followed the decline of crude oil, the outer market month spread and crack spread have also declined [1] - The fundamentals and market structure of low-sulfur fuel oil have been weak recently [1]