新能源及有色金属日报：电解铝厂积极补货氧化铝-20251030

Report Industry Investment Rating - Aluminum: Cautiously bullish - Alumina: Neutral - Aluminum alloy: Cautiously bullish - Arbitrage: Long the SHFE aluminum forward spread [9] Core Viewpoints - The overall domestic supply - demand fundamentals of electrolytic aluminum have not changed significantly. Overseas production cuts and high electricity costs impact the market. The aluminum price is supported by macro factors, and its upward potential depends on the inventory drawdown [6]. - Alumina has a low - price spot market, and electrolytic aluminum plants are actively purchasing. However, the supply - demand surplus persists, and cost and supply factors put pressure on prices, with current valuations being low [7][8]. Summary by Related Catalogs Important Data Aluminum Spot - On October 29, 2025, the SMM data showed that the price of East China A00 aluminum was 21,170 yuan/ton, with a change of 10 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The spot premium/discount was - 30 yuan/ton, a 10 - yuan/ton change. The Central China A00 aluminum price was 21,040 yuan/ton, and the spot premium/discount was - 160 yuan/ton, a 10 - yuan/ton change. The Foshan A00 aluminum price was 21,070 yuan/ton, with no change [1]. Aluminum Futures - On October 29, 2025, the main SHFE aluminum contract opened at 21,180 yuan/ton, closed at 21,295 yuan/ton, up 75 yuan/ton. The highest price was 21,330 yuan/ton, and the lowest was 21,155 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 151,760 lots, and the open interest was 283,278 lots [2]. Aluminum Inventory - As of October 29, 2025, the domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots was 626,000 tons, a change of 8,000 tons from the previous period. The warrant inventory was 66,044 tons, a change of - 199 tons. The LME aluminum inventory was 462,750 tons, a change of - 2,900 tons [2]. Alumina Spot Price - On October 29, 2025, the SMM alumina price in Shanxi was 2,845 yuan/ton, in Shandong was 2,790 yuan/ton, in Henan was 2,865 yuan/ton, in Guangxi was 3,020 yuan/ton, in Guizhou was 3,030 yuan/ton, and the Australian alumina FOB price was 319 US dollars/ton [2]. Alumina Futures - On October 29, 2025, the main alumina contract opened at 2,818 yuan/ton, closed at 2,879 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan/ton (1.41%). The highest price was 2,885 yuan/ton, and the lowest was 2,814 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 339,807 lots, and the open interest was 377,474 lots [2]. Aluminum Alloy Price - On October 29, 2025, the Baotai civilian scrap aluminum purchase price was 16,800 yuan/ton, and the mechanical scrap aluminum purchase price was 17,000 yuan/ton, both up 100 yuan/ton from the previous day. The Baotai ADC12 quotation was 20,800 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton [3]. Aluminum Alloy Inventory - The social inventory of aluminum alloy was 75,300 tons, and the in - plant inventory was 60,700 tons [4]. Aluminum Alloy Cost - Profit - The theoretical total cost was 20,703 yuan/ton, and the theoretical profit was 97 yuan/ton [5] Market Analysis Electrolytic Aluminum - The domestic supply - demand fundamentals are stable. Overseas, an accident in an Icelandic plant caused a 200,000 - ton production cut, and high electricity costs pressure overseas production. Consumption is stable, but inventory drawdown is not obvious, and the spot discount is hard to correct. Sino - US negotiations may have an emotional impact [6]. Alumina - Low - price alumina spot and high profits of electrolytic aluminum plants drive procurement. However, the supply - demand surplus remains, and cost and supply factors are unfavorable. The price is currently undervalued [7][8]