化工日报：午后焦煤偏强，EG跟涨-20251030

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral. High supply leads to significant inventory accumulation pressure in the fourth quarter, but the price has dropped near the April low. The moderate improvement in demand and the rebound in costs have boosted market sentiment [2] - Inter - period: EG2601 - EG2605 reverse spread - Inter - variety: None Core View - Yesterday, the closing price of the EG main contract was 4,100 yuan/ton (up 31 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, an increase of 0.76%), the spot price of EG in the East China market was 4,158 yuan/ton (down 3 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, a decrease of 0.07%), and the spot basis of EG in East China was 73 yuan/ton (down 3 yuan/ton month - on - month) [1] - According to Longzhong data, the production profit of ethylene - based EG was - 44 US dollars/ton (up 7 US dollars/ton month - on - month), and the production profit of coal - based syngas EG was - 599 yuan/ton (down 16 yuan/ton month - on - month) [1] - According to CCF data released every Monday, the inventory of MEG in the main ports of East China was 523,000 tons (down 56,000 tons month - on - month); according to Longzhong data released every Thursday, the inventory of MEG in the main ports of East China was 483,000 tons (down 10,000 tons month - on - month). The actual arrival at the main ports last week was 35,000 tons, and the planned arrival at the main ports of East China this week is 198,000 tons, and the planned arrival at the secondary ports is 45,000 tons. It is expected that inventory will accumulate again [1] - On the supply side, the domestic ethylene glycol load is operating at a high level, and there are still many overseas supply losses. More than two sets of equipment in Saudi Arabia are still in a shutdown or low - load operation state, but due to the issue of individual ships involving the US, the supply will be postponed in the short term. On the demand side, with the recent cooling, the downstream of polyester has moderately improved, which has a certain boost to the overall sentiment [1] Summary by Directory Price and Basis - The closing price of the EG main contract was 4,100 yuan/ton (up 31 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, an increase of 0.76%), the spot price of EG in the East China market was 4,158 yuan/ton (down 3 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, a decrease of 0.07%), and the spot basis of EG in East China was 73 yuan/ton (down 3 yuan/ton month - on - month) [1] Production Profit and Operating Rate - The production profit of ethylene - based EG was - 44 US dollars/ton (up 7 US dollars/ton month - on - month), and the production profit of coal - based syngas EG was - 599 yuan/ton (down 16 yuan/ton month - on - month) [1] International Price Difference - Not mentioned in the content Downstream Production, Sales and Operating Rate - With the recent cooling, the downstream of polyester has moderately improved, which has a certain boost to the overall sentiment [1] Inventory Data - According to CCF data released every Monday, the inventory of MEG in the main ports of East China was 523,000 tons (down 56,000 tons month - on - month); according to Longzhong data released every Thursday, the inventory of MEG in the main ports of East China was 483,000 tons (down 10,000 tons month - on - month). The actual arrival at the main ports last week was 35,000 tons, and the planned arrival at the main ports of East China this week is 198,000 tons, and the planned arrival at the secondary ports is 45,000 tons. It is expected that inventory will accumulate again [1]