新能源及有色金属日报：铜价创出新高，易涨难跌格局暂难改-20251030

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Copper investment rating: Cautiously bullish; Arbitrage: On hold; Options: short put [7] 2. Core View of the Report - The gold price rebounded and the copper price reached a new high yesterday. The gold - copper ratio may still need to converge in the future. However, as the demand side has no outstanding performance, enterprises with selling hedging needs can choose the right time to operate. Currently, the pattern of copper prices being prone to rise and hard to fall is difficult to change [7] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data Futures Quotes - On October 29, 2025, the main Shanghai copper contract opened at 87,220 yuan/ton and closed at 88,710 yuan/ton, a 1.99% increase from the previous trading day's close. The night - session closed at 89,130 yuan/ton, a 0.47% increase from the afternoon close [1] Spot Situation - According to SMM, the spot quotation of SMM 1 electrolytic copper was at a discount of 130 to a premium of 10 yuan/ton against the 2511 contract, with an average discount of 60 yuan/ton, a 5 - yuan/ton decrease from the previous day. The spot price range was 87,550 - 87,980 yuan/ton. Market procurement and sales sentiment warmed up. If copper prices continue to be strong, downstream will mainly make rigid - demand purchases, while traders may replenish stocks moderately [2] Important Information Summary - The Fed cut interest rates by 25BP to 3.75% - 4.00%, the second cut this year, and will end balance - sheet reduction from December 1, 2025. Fed Chairman Powell said a December rate cut is "far from certain", and FOMC members are divided [3] Mining End - First Quantum Minerals' Sentinel mine produced 51,336 tons of copper in Q3 2025, a quarter - on - quarter increase of 8,228 tons. The monthly average ore - grinding throughput exceeded 5 million tons, a 14% quarter - on - quarter increase. The company is solving the fatigue problem of the 2nd ball mill's flange bolts and expects the 2nd in - pit crusher to be put into operation in Q4 2025 [4] Smelting and Import - The "Guidelines for Green Transformation of the Non - ferrous Metal Industry in Henan Province" proposes to replace traditional roasting with bio - leaching in copper smelting, use low - arsenic and low - fluorine - chlorine raw materials, and adopt advanced processes to reduce emissions [5] Consumption - China Power Construction is participating in the UAE RTC photo - storage project, which will build a 5.2GW photovoltaic power station + 19GWh battery energy - storage system. China Power Construction is responsible for the 2.1GW photovoltaic + 7.6GWh energy - storage part of the northern block. The project is expected to be put into operation in 2027 [6] Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - LME warehouse receipts decreased by 1,400 tons to 135,350 tons, SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 101 tons to 35,745 tons. On October 29, the domestic electrolytic copper spot inventory was 184,500 tons, a 2,900 - ton increase from the previous week [6] Price and Basis Data - The spot (premium/discount) of SMM 1 copper, prices of different copper types, LME (0 - 3), LME inventory, SHFE inventory, COMEX inventory, warehouse receipts, LME cancellation rate, and various spreads, arbitrage ratios, and import profits are presented with data for different time points (October 30, 29, 23, and September 30, 2025) [25][26][27]