国泰君安期货商品研究晨报：贵金属及基本金属-20251030

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Gold is expected to continue to decline, while silver is expected to rebound with fluctuations. Copper's price increase is restricted by the hawkish outlook on interest rate cuts. Zinc is expected to have a slight rebound. Lead's price is supported by the continuous decrease in inventory. Tin's performance is subject to macro - economic impacts. Aluminum is expected to trade within a range, alumina is expected to have a slight rebound, and cast aluminum alloy will follow the trend of electrolytic aluminum. Nickel prices will fluctuate narrowly due to the game between smelting inventory accumulation and nickel ore concerns, and stainless steel has limited downward potential but lacks upward driving force [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Gold - Price and Performance: The closing price of Shanghai Gold 2512 yesterday was 910.88 with a daily increase of 1.05%, and the night - session closing price was 910.92 with a night - session increase of 0.69%. Comex Gold 2512 decreased by 0.67% yesterday. The trend strength is - 1, indicating a bearish outlook [4]. - Inventory and Other Data: SPDR Gold ETF's holdings decreased by 3, Comex gold inventory (in troy ounces, from the day before yesterday) decreased by 232,686, and Shanghai gold inventory increased by 801 [4]. - Macro and Industry News: The leaders of China and the United States will meet in Busan, South Korea on Thursday. The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points in October, ended balance - sheet reduction in December, and Powell dampened the market's expectation of an interest rate cut at the end of the year [4][7]. Silver - Price and Performance: The closing price of Shanghai Silver 2512 yesterday was 11338 with a daily increase of 2.54%, and the night - session closing price was 11265.00 with a night - session increase of 0.64%. Comex Silver 2512 increased by 0.29% yesterday. The trend strength is - 1 [4]. - Inventory and Other Data: SLV Silver ETF's holdings remained unchanged, Comex silver inventory (in troy ounces, from the day before yesterday) decreased by 4,494,628, and Shanghai silver inventory decreased by 3599 [4]. Copper - Price and Performance: The closing price of the Shanghai copper main contract was 88,710 with a daily increase of 1.99%, and the night - session closing price was 89130 with a night - session increase of 0.47%. The LME copper 3M electronic disk increased by 0.55%. The trend strength is 0 [8]. - Inventory and Other Data: Shanghai copper inventory decreased by 101, and LME copper inventory increased by 775. The注销仓单 ratio of LME copper increased by 2.54% [8]. - Macro and Industry News: Despite the Fed's interest rate cut and end of QT, Powell's hawkish remarks on the December interest rate cut reduced the market's probability of a December rate cut from 95% to 65%. Antofagasta's Q3 copper production increased by 1% quarter - on - quarter, and Anglo American's Q3 copper production was higher than the same period last year, but the cumulative production in the first three quarters decreased by 9% year - on - year. Glencore's copper production in the first three quarters decreased by 17% [8][10]. Zinc - Price and Performance: The closing price of the Shanghai zinc main contract was 22430 with a 0.54% increase, while the LME zinc 3M electronic disk decreased by 0.07%. The trend strength is 0 [11]. - News: The leaders of China and the United States will meet, which is considered important for stabilizing Sino - US relations [11]. Lead - Price and Performance: The closing price of the Shanghai lead main contract remained unchanged at 17355, and the LME lead 3M electronic disk increased by 0.07%. The trend strength is 0 [14]. - Inventory and Other Data: Shanghai lead inventory decreased by 100, and LME lead inventory decreased by 4800 [14]. - News: The Fed's hawkish remarks on the December interest rate cut reduced the market's probability of a December rate cut from 95% to 65%, and the leaders of China and the United States will meet [15]. Tin - Price and Performance: The closing price of the Shanghai tin main contract was 286,720 with a 1.25% increase, and the night - session closing price decreased by 0.29%. The LME tin 3M electronic disk decreased by 0.61%. The trend strength is 0 [17]. - Inventory and Other Data: Shanghai tin inventory increased by 73, and LME tin inventory increased by 130 [17]. - Macro and Industry News: Similar to gold and silver, including Sino - US leader meeting, Fed's interest rate decision, etc. [18]. Aluminum, Alumina, and Cast Aluminum Alloy - Price and Performance: Aluminum is expected to trade within a range, alumina is expected to have a slight rebound, and cast aluminum alloy will follow the trend of electrolytic aluminum. The trend strengths of aluminum, alumina, and aluminum alloy are all 0 [21][23]. - Inventory and Other Data: Domestic aluminum ingot social inventory remained unchanged at 61.60 million tons, and LME aluminum ingot inventory decreased by 0.29 million tons [21]. - Comprehensive News: The Fed continued to cut interest rates by 25 basis points in October and will end balance - sheet reduction in December. South Korea and the United States reached a trade agreement, with South Korea promising to invest $350 billion in the United States [23]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - Price and Performance: Nickel prices will fluctuate narrowly due to the game between smelting inventory accumulation and nickel ore concerns, and stainless steel has limited downward potential but lacks upward driving force. The trend strengths of nickel and stainless steel are both 0 [24]. - Industry News: Indonesia's forestry working group took over a 148 - hectare nickel mining area, expected to affect nickel ore production by about 600 metal tons per month. China suspended an unofficial subsidy for copper and nickel imports from Russia. Indonesia imposed sanctions on 190 mining companies and issued a new regulation on mining business plans and budgets [24][25].