有色金属月度策略：Metal Futures Daily Strategy-20251030

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The macro - atmosphere is warming, with the easing of the Sino - US trade situation, rising risk appetite, and the end of the strong performance of precious metals. The non - ferrous metal sector, led by copper, has shown signs of a fluctuating rebound. The overall direction is upward, but there are differences in strength within the sector [11]. - In the future, the center of copper prices is expected to rise under the joint drive of commodity and financial attributes. Zinc shows a fluctuating rebound, and the aluminum industry chain is recommended to be treated with a bullish mindset. Tin and lead are expected to be bullish, while nickel and stainless steel are in a volatile pattern [3][4][5][6][7][8]. 3. Summary by Directory First Part: Non - ferrous Metal Operation Logic and Investment Suggestions - Macro Logic: The Sino - US trade situation has eased, risk appetite has recovered, and non - ferrous metals, led by copper, have rebounded. The Fed is expected to cut interest rates by 25 basis points. Key events to watch this week include trade situations, central bank meetings, and economic data releases [11]. - Investment Strategies for Each Metal - Copper: With the improvement of the manufacturing PMI, the increase in domestic demand in the fourth quarter, supply constraints, and dovish remarks from Powell, the copper price center is expected to rise. It is recommended to gradually buy on dips, with short - term pressure at 89000 - 90000 yuan/ton and support at 84000 - 85000 yuan/ton [3][12]. - Zinc: Supported by the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations and trade situation, zinc shows a fluctuating rebound. It is recommended to buy on dips, with pressure at 22400 - 22500 and support at 21500 - 21600 [4][12]. - Aluminum Industry Chain: The aluminum market is bullish, with the upper pressure range at 21500 - 21800 and the lower support range at 20500 - 20800. Alumina is recommended to be short - sold, with pressure at 3000 - 3200 and support at 2600 - 2700. Cast aluminum alloy is also recommended to be treated bullishly [5][13]. - Tin: The tin market is bullish, with pressure at 290000 - 300000 and support at 260000 - 270000. It is recommended to take a bullish approach [6][13]. - Lead: The lead market is in a consolidation phase. It is recommended to hold covered call options, with pressure at 17800 - 18000 and support at 17300 - 17500 [7][14]. - Nickel: The nickel price fluctuates. It is recommended to buy slightly on dips, with pressure at 125000 - 128000 and support at 118000 - 120000 [8][14]. - Stainless Steel: The stainless - steel market is in a volatile pattern, with pressure at 13000 - 13200 and support at 12500 - 12600. It is recommended to buy on dips [8][14]. Second Part: Non - ferrous Metal Market Review - Futures Closing Prices and Price Changes: Copper closed at 88710 with a 1.99% increase; zinc at 22430 with a 0.54% increase; aluminum at 21295 with a 0.73% increase; alumina at 2879 with a 2.20% increase; tin at 286720 with a 1.25% increase; lead at 17355 with no change; nickel at 121540 with a 0.81% increase; stainless steel at 12805 with a 0.43% increase; and cast aluminum alloy at 20690 with a 0.56% increase [15]. Third Part: Non - ferrous Metal Position Analysis - Position Analysis of Each Variety: Different non - ferrous metal varieties show different net long - short positions and changes. For example, in沪银(AG2512), the main force is strongly bullish, with a net long - short position difference of 16074, and the net long position increased by 1582 [17]. Fourth Part: Non - ferrous Metal Spot Market - Spot Prices and Price Changes: The spot price of Yangtze River Non - ferrous copper is 87810 yuan/ton with a - 0.50% change; 0 zinc is 22300 yuan/ton with a 0.13% increase; the average spot price of Yangtze River Non - ferrous aluminum is 21150 yuan/ton with a - 0.05% change; and the national average price of Antaike alumina is 2906 yuan/ton with a - 0.14% change [18]. Fifth Part: Non - ferrous Metal Industry Chain - The report provides multiple charts related to the industry chain of each non - ferrous metal, including inventory changes, processing fees, and price relationships, to show the supply - demand relationship and price trends in the industry chain [23][26][28] Sixth Part: Non - ferrous Metal Arbitrage - The report provides multiple charts related to the arbitrage of each non - ferrous metal, such as the Shanghai - London ratio and the basis, to help investors find arbitrage opportunities [58][59][61] Seventh Part: Non - ferrous Metal Options - The report provides multiple charts related to non - ferrous metal options, including historical volatility, implied volatility, and trading volume - position changes, to help investors understand the option market [75][77][80]