Minsheng Securities·2025-10-30 06:45Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company, with a current price of 9.91 yuan [7]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 176.52 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 1.6%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 10.87 billion yuan, up 20.6% year-on-year [1]. - The increase in aluminum prices has significantly boosted profitability, with a gross margin of 17.3% for the first three quarters of 2025, up 2.1 percentage points year-on-year [2]. - The company has a strong integrated supply chain, with a high self-sufficiency rate in bauxite resources, enhancing its risk resilience [4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q3 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 60.12 billion yuan, a decrease of 4.7% year-on-year, but a net profit of 3.80 billion yuan, reflecting a 90.0% increase year-on-year [1][2]. - The gross margin for Q3 2025 was 18.4%, an increase of 6.7 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to rising aluminum prices [2]. Production and Pricing - The production of electrolytic aluminum reached 6 million tons in the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 6.8% [2]. - The average aluminum price for the first three quarters of 2025 was 20,447 yuan per ton, up 3.7% year-on-year, with Q3 2025 averaging 20,710 yuan per ton, a 5.9% increase year-on-year [2]. Strategic Positioning - The company is focusing on resource security and has a significant bauxite resource of approximately 2.7 billion tons, with a self-sufficiency rate that continues to improve [4]. - The company is expected to benefit from a revaluation under the "special valuation" system due to its status as a key player in the national economy and ongoing state-owned enterprise reforms [4]. Profit Forecast - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 14.54 billion yuan, 16.66 billion yuan, and 17.26 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 12, 10, and 10 [5][6].