福昕软件(688095):双转型战略深化,看好全年业绩放量

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained at "Buy" with a target price of RMB 119.23 [1][5]. Core Insights - The company has reported a significant revenue increase of 32.81% year-on-year for the first three quarters of 2025, reaching RMB 676 million, with Q3 revenue growing by 47.80% year-on-year to RMB 254 million [2][5]. - The company's dual transformation strategy of "Subscription + Channel" is expected to accelerate performance growth, supported by a strong increase in subscription revenue and channel sales [1][4]. - The subscription business has seen a remarkable growth of 62.87% year-on-year, contributing 61.28% to the original business revenue, with a quarterly subscription revenue of RMB 152 million in Q3 2025, up 68.10% year-on-year [3][5]. Revenue and Profitability - The company achieved a net profit of RMB 6.28 million in Q3 2025, a year-on-year increase of 126.36%, while the net profit for the first three quarters was RMB 1.41 million, down 96.37% year-on-year due to reduced non-recurring investment income [1][2]. - The adjusted net profit for the first three quarters of 2025, excluding non-recurring items, showed a significant reduction in losses by 77% [2][5]. Market Expansion - Revenue growth in North America, Europe, and Asia-Pacific markets was approximately 25%, 32%, and 55% year-on-year, respectively, indicating successful global expansion [2][5]. - The core PC channel revenue in Q3 2025 increased by 80.77% year-on-year, contributing to the overall channel revenue growth of 63.89% in the same period [4][5]. Financial Forecasts - The revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 have been adjusted upwards to RMB 889 million, RMB 1.114 billion, and RMB 1.401 billion, respectively, reflecting a growth rate of 25.08% in 2025 [5][11]. - The projected net profit for 2025 is RMB 419.8 million, with an EPS of RMB 0.46, indicating a significant recovery in profitability [5][11].