“十五五”规划建议联合点评

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The policy orientation in the Proposals aligns with expectations. Some planning contents may have medium - to long - term impacts on major asset classes. For example, strategic positions of science, technology, and emerging industries are strengthened; there are impacts on consumption, investment, anti - involution, macro - economic policies, financial markets, RMB internationalization, and supply chain security [9][10]. - For different asset classes: - Equity index: The market is expected to consolidate at the end of the year and has an offensive window before next year's Two Sessions, focusing on technology and "anti - involution" themes [2]. - Government bonds: The short - term impact is limited, and the bond market is expected to fluctuate with a slightly stronger bias in November and December [2]. - Commodities: The demand - pull effect will diverge, with new energy - related demand growth likely to benefit more [3]. - Energy transition and carbon neutrality: Focus on the shift between traditional and new energy sources, and carbon prices may fluctuate upward [3]. - Technological self - reliance and advanced manufacturing: Sectors related to new - quality productive forces are expected to maintain rapid growth [3]. 3. Summary According to the Catalog 3.1 Macro Economy - On October 28, the Proposals and the Explanation were released. The policy orientation in the Proposals aligns with expectations. In terms of structure, compared with the 14th Five - Year Plan Outline, the importance of opening - up and social welfare protection chapters has increased. Digital development is incorporated into the science and technology chapter, new - type urbanization is merged into regional economic layout, and two other chapters are consolidated into Part III [8][9]. - Qualitative planning is made for the next five - year key tasks, with quantitative targets and detailed arrangements to be determined in the Plan Outline. Some planning contents may impact major asset classes: - Science, technology, and emerging industries: Stocks and related commodities in the technology sector may benefit as key technological fields are expected to attract more capital and real demand [10]. - Consumption: "Vigorously boost consumption" may lead to relaxed restrictions on real estate and vehicle purchases, benefiting related stocks and commodities [12]. - Investment: The proportion of construction - related demand in commodities may decline, while products related to "a better life" may have incremental demand [12]. - Anti - involution: Policy attention on key sectors' prices will continue, curbing disorderly competition and regulating local government investment - promotion practices [13]. - Macroeconomic policy: The pricing logic of refined oil products may change due to potential consumption tax reform [13]. - Financial markets: The equity market will focus more on shareholder returns, and the futures and derivatives markets may enter a new development stage [13]. - RMB internationalization: The central level of RMB exchange rate volatility may decline [14]. - Supply chain security: Certain strategic minerals may see incremental demand [14]. 3.2 Equity Index - The equity market has fully priced in short - term policy positives, and the medium - term upward trend is consolidated. Adopt a long - term perspective with short - term tactical operations, focusing on four policy themes: - Stabilize growth: Expect further strengthening of counter - cyclical adjustments [15][16]. - Manufacturing and technology: Emphasize advanced manufacturing and self - reliance, highlighting emerging and future industries and key fields [17]. - Optimize traditional industries: Require major cyclical industries to enhance their position and competitiveness, which may increase leading enterprises' market share [18]. - Boost domestic demand: Focus on people's livelihood, but the shift to consumption - driven growth takes time. The stock market is expected to be optimistic before next year's Two Sessions, focusing on technology and "anti - involution" themes [19][20]. 3.3 China's Government Bonds - The Proposals convey a medium - to long - term policy tone of "seeking progress while maintaining stability" with high - quality development as the theme. The weight of economic growth may increase, and growth sources and modes may adjust. - Regarding monetary policy, it aims to improve the central banking system, build a sound monetary policy framework and a comprehensive macroprudential governance system. The next stage of building the macroprudential governance framework focuses on four areas [22][23]. - The short - term impact on the bond market is limited. In November and December, the bond market is expected to fluctuate with a slightly stronger bias, influenced by monetary policy, year - end institutional allocations, and fund fee reform [24]. 3.4 Commodities - On the supply side, the Proposals call for optimizing and upgrading traditional industries, which will support commodity prices through supply elasticity management in different sectors such as ferrous metals, energy and chemicals, non - ferrous metals, and agricultural products [26]. - On the demand side, policies support economic growth and set a floor for commodity demand, but the impact varies by sector. New energy - related metals like copper, aluminum, and lithium will see clear demand growth, while other commodities face different challenges and opportunities [27]. - The commodities market is entering a phase of structural divergence. Short - term policy expectations may boost sentiment, but long - term trends depend on fundamentals [28]. 3.5 Energy transition and Carbon Neutrality - Energy: The Proposals emphasize accelerating new energy system construction, promoting green transformation, and increasing new energy supply. They also call for developing new energy storage and strengthening power grid construction, which may increase demand for certain metals. For fossil energy, consumption is expected to peak, and the consumption structure may change [30]. - Carbon market: The Proposals mention expanding the carbon market and developing a voluntary emission reduction market. In the short term, carbon prices are affected by quota carry - over policies; in the long term, they may fluctuate upward due to tightened quota allocations and market expansion [31]. 3.6 Technological Self - Reliance and Advanced Manufacturing - The 15th Five - Year Plan Proposals elevate scientific and technological self - reliance to the second main objective. It emphasizes advanced manufacturing and breakthroughs in "bottleneck" technologies. Investment in key areas like integrated circuits is expected to maintain rapid growth, driving related material demand [33].