梅花生物（600873）：氨基酸景气有望回暖助力公司业绩

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price of RMB 12.70 [1][4]. Core Views - The company reported Q3 revenue of RMB 5.9 billion, a year-over-year decrease of 2% and a quarter-over-quarter decrease of 1%. However, the net profit attributable to the parent company was RMB 1.26 billion, showing a year-over-year increase of 141% and a quarter-over-quarter increase of 68% [1]. - The company’s net profit for the first three quarters of 2025 reached RMB 30.3 billion, a year-over-year increase of 52%, driven by the acquisition of an overseas company which contributed approximately RMB 7.8 billion to the profit [1][4]. - The report anticipates a recovery in the amino acid market, supported by increased penetration in the aquaculture sector and a favorable demand outlook due to reduced soybean meal usage [1][3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, the feed amino acids revenue was RMB 8.19 billion, down 2% year-over-year, while lysine sales increased despite price declines. The average prices for lysine and threonine were RMB 8.5/kg and RMB 10.0/kg, reflecting year-over-year decreases of 16% and 5% respectively [2]. - The overall gross margin improved by 2.4 percentage points to 21.3% due to lower raw material costs [2]. Market Outlook - The prices for key products such as lysine and threonine are currently at low levels, but demand is expected to recover as aquaculture penetration increases and consumer demand rebounds [3]. - The company is expanding its product line through acquisitions, which will enhance its high-value pharmaceutical amino acid offerings and support its international expansion strategy [3]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The net profit forecast for 2025 has been adjusted down to RMB 3.54 billion, a 3% decrease from previous estimates, while maintaining projections of approximately RMB 3.6 billion and RMB 3.8 billion for 2026 and 2027 respectively [4]. - The expected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is RMB 1.26, with a projected price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 11x for 2025 [4][8].