HTSC·2025-10-30 06:39Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 542 HKD [7]. Core Insights - The company is expected to report total revenue of 7.583 billion HKD for 3Q25, representing a year-on-year increase of 41% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 5%. The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be 4.774 billion HKD, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 52% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 7% [1][5]. - The significant increase in trading activity is the main driver of revenue growth, with the average daily turnover (ADT) for Hong Kong stocks reaching 286.4 billion HKD, a year-on-year increase of 141% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 20% [1][2]. - The report anticipates a decrease in net investment income to 917 million HKD, a decline of 41% quarter-on-quarter, primarily due to a narrowing margin from margin investments as HIBOR decreases [4]. Summary by Sections Trading Activity - Trading-related revenue is expected to rise to 5.14 billion HKD, a quarter-on-quarter increase of 31%. The trading activity in Hong Kong stocks has reached new highs, with ADT increasing significantly [2]. - Southbound trading volume has also seen rapid growth, with a single-sided ADT of 76.2 billion HKD, a quarter-on-quarter increase of 36% [2]. IPO Market - The report estimates that IPO-related revenue for 3Q25 will be 440 million HKD, a quarter-on-quarter increase of 7.5%. The number of IPOs in 3Q25 is expected to be 25, with total fundraising amounting to 73.5 billion HKD [3]. Investment Income - The expected net investment income for 3Q25 is projected to be 917 million HKD, reflecting a significant decrease due to various factors including HIBOR fluctuations [4]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The report adjusts the net profit forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 to 17.7 billion HKD, 18.3 billion HKD, and 18.7 billion HKD respectively, with increases of 5.2%, 11.2%, and 14.1% [5].