外糖缺乏驱动，白糖短期承压

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Sugar - Oscillation [1] - Cotton - Oscillation [1] 2. Core View of the Report - Sugar consumption has seasonally rebounded due to the demand for cold drinks in summer, and sugar imports have increased significantly recently. The impact of rainfall in Inner Mongolia on sugar beet production and the growth recovery of sugarcane after typhoon disasters in Guangdong and Guangxi need further attention. Sugar prices are under short - term pressure due to the lack of driving force in foreign sugar [1][3]. - In August, cotton in Xinjiang and the Yangtze River Basin faced a high risk of high - temperature heat damage. With the continuous decline of commercial cotton inventory and the upcoming peak season of cotton textile, there is bottom support for cotton prices. Although the growth meteorological conditions are good and the picking progress is ahead of schedule, the cotton price is expected to run in the range of 14,000 - 16,000 yuan and there is a downward risk after the centralized listing of seed cotton [1][3]. - The recommended strategy is to wait and see [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Information - On October 30, 2025, the spot price of sugar in Nanning was 5,750 yuan, in Kunming was 5,720 yuan, and the spot price of cotton in Xinjiang was 14,650 yuan [1]. - The closing price of U.S. sugar was 14.43, with a change of 0.28%. The closing price of U.S. cotton was 65.95, with a change of 1.38% [1]. 3.2 Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - Zhengzhou sugar warehouse receipts were 7,625, with a change of - 0.91%. Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts were 2,460, with a change of - 0.45% [2]. 3.3 Data Comparison 3.3.1 Outer - Market Quotes | Commodity | Oct 28, 2025 | Oct 29, 2025 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | U.S. Sugar (USD) | 14.39 | 14.43 | 0.28% | | U.S. Cotton (USD) | 65.05 | 65.95 | 1.38% | [4] 3.3.2 Spot Prices | Commodity | Oct 28, 2025 | Oct 29, 2025 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Sugar (Nanning) | 5,750.0 | 5,750.0 | 0.00% | | Sugar (Kunming) | 5,720.0 | 5,720.0 | 0.00% | | Cotton Index 328 | 3,281 | 3,280 | 0.07% | | Cotton (Xinjiang) | 14,700.0 | 14,650.0 | - 0.34% | [4] 3.3.3 Price Spreads | Commodity Spread | Oct 28, 2025 | Oct 29, 2025 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SR01 - 05 | 65.0 | 64.0 | - 1.54% | | SR05 - 09 | - 8.0 | - 7.0 | - 12.50% | | SR09 - 01 | - 57.0 | - 57.0 | 0.00% | | CF01 - 05 | - 5.0 | - 5.0 | 0.00% | | CF05 - 09 | - 155.0 | - 155.0 | 0.00% | | CF09 - 01 | 160.0 | 160.0 | 0.00% | [4] 3.3.4 Basis | Commodity Basis | Oct 28, 2025 | Oct 29, 2025 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Sugar 01 Basis | 237.0 | 226.0 | - 4.64% | | Sugar 05 Basis | 302.0 | 290.0 | - 3.97% | | Sugar 09 Basis | 294.0 | 283.0 | - 3.74% | | Cotton 01 Basis | 1,265.0 | 1,220.0 | - 3.56% | | Cotton 05 Basis | 1,260.0 | 1,215.0 | - 3.57% | | Cotton 09 Basis | 1,105.0 | 1,060.0 | - 4.07% | [4] 3.3.5 Import Prices | Commodity | Oct 28, 2025 | Oct 29, 2025 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Cotton CotlookA | 75.95 | 75.95 | 0.00% | [4] 3.3.6 Profit Margins | Commodity | Oct 28, 2025 | Oct 29, 2025 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Sugar Import Profit | 1,795.5 | 1,795.5 | 0.00% | [4] 3.3.7 Options | Option Contract | Implied Volatility | Futures Underlying | Historical Volatility | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SR601C5500 | 0.0734 | SR601 | 7.2 | | SR601P5500 | 0.0735 | | | | CF601C13600 | 0.0746 | CF601 | 7.99 | | CF601P13600 | 0.0759 | | | [4] 3.3.8 Inventory Warehouse Receipts | Commodity | Oct 28, 2025 | Oct 29, 2025 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Sugar | 7,695.0 | 7,625.0 | - 0.91% | | Cotton | 2,471.0 | 2,460.0 | - 0.45% | [4]