Shenwan Hongyuan Securities·2025-10-30 06:46Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2] Core Insights - The company achieved a slight revenue decline of 0.5% year-on-year for the first nine months of 2025, but the third quarter showed a positive revenue growth of 2.1% [5][7] - The net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 0.5% year-on-year for the first nine months of 2025, indicating stable profit growth [5][7] - The bank's interest income showed a year-on-year growth of 1.7%, contributing positively to revenue growth [7] - The bank's wealth management income grew by 19% year-on-year, with fund distribution income increasing nearly 40% [7] - The bank's non-performing loan (NPL) ratio slightly increased to 0.94%, while the provision coverage ratio decreased to 406% [5][10] Financial Data and Earnings Forecast - Total revenue for 2025 is projected at 338,016.55 million, with a year-on-year growth rate of 0.16% [6] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be 149,691.54 million for 2025, with a growth rate of 0.88% [6] - The bank's return on equity (ROE) is expected to be 13.19% in 2025 [6] - The bank's price-to-book (PB) ratio is currently at 0.90 times, indicating a favorable valuation [10] Loan and Deposit Performance - The bank's loan growth remained stable, with a quarterly growth rate of approximately 5.6% [7] - The bank's deposit growth outpaced loan growth, with a deposit growth rate of 9% in the third quarter of 2025 [7][12] - The proportion of demand deposits remained close to 50%, reflecting a strong low-cost funding advantage [12] Asset Quality - The bank's asset quality remains stable, with minimal new NPL generation in corporate loans and a gradual decline in real estate NPLs [10][14] - Retail NPL generation remains high but is stabilizing, with proactive write-offs ensuring continued asset quality [10][14]