铜：降息前景鹰派，限制价格上涨

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report - The report presents the latest copper fundamentals data, including prices, trading volumes, inventories, spreads, etc., and also lists recent macro and industry news, with a copper trend strength of 0, indicating a neutral view [1][3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs a. Copper Fundamentals Data - Prices and Changes: The closing price of the Shanghai Copper main contract yesterday was 88,710 with a daily increase of 1.99%, and the night - session closing price was 89,130 with a night - session increase of 0.47%; the closing price of the LME Copper 3M electronic disk yesterday was 11,090 with a daily increase of 0.55% [1]. - Trading Volume and Position: The trading volume of the Shanghai Copper Index yesterday was 347,234, a decrease of 49,131 from the previous day, and the position was 617,144, an increase of 22,023; the trading volume of the LME Copper 3M electronic disk was 29,130, an increase of 7,363, and the position was 328,000, an increase of 4,765 [1]. - Inventory and Changes: The Shanghai Copper inventory was 35,745, a decrease of 101; the LME Copper inventory was 135,350, an increase of 775, and the注销仓单 ratio was 10.84%, an increase of 2.54% [1]. - Spreads: The LME copper spread was - 19.54, an increase of 4.30 from the previous day; the Shanghai 1 bright copper price was 78,600, a decrease of 300; the spot - to - near - month futures spread was - 60, a decrease of 5 [1]. b. Macro and Industry News - Macro News: The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected and ended QT, but Powell's hawkish remarks on the December interest - rate cut led the market's probability of a December rate cut to drop from 95% to 65%. Also, Xi Jinping will meet with US President Trump [1]. - Industry News: Antofagasta's copper production in Q3 2025 was 161,800 tons, a 1% increase quarter - on - quarter, and the annual production is expected to be at the lower end of the 660,000 - 700,000 - ton guidance range; Indonesia may allow Amman Mineral International to export copper concentrates; Trump overturned a pollution - prevention regulation on copper smelters; Anglo American's Q3 copper production this year was 184,000 tons, higher than the same period last year, but the production in the first three quarters decreased by 9% year - on - year to 526,000 tons; Glencore's copper production in the first three quarters decreased by 17% due to lower ore grades at some mines [1][3]. c. Trend Intensity - The copper trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral view, with the range of trend intensity being integers in the [- 2,2] interval, where - 2 means most bearish and 2 means most bullish [3].