农产品日报-20251030

Group 1: Investment Ratings for Different Agricultural Products - Corn: The rating is "Oscillating Downward" [1] - Soybean Meal: The rating is "Oscillating" [1] - Oils and Fats: The rating is "Declining" [1] - Eggs: The rating is "Oscillating" [1] - Pigs: The rating is "Oscillating" [2] Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Corn: On Wednesday, the main corn 2601 contract closed with a small negative line after opening flat, showing an oscillating performance. The supply of new grain in the spot market has increased, and the supply pressure of corn in Jilin has been transmitted to the ports, causing the prices at northern ports to decline under pressure. The prices in North China are running steadily with a slight upward trend. The prices in the sales areas are mainly weak. The downstream feed enterprises are mostly waiting and watching, and the port traders are actively selling. Technically, the main 2601 contract is under pressure to rebound, and the long - term outlook is bearish [1]. - Soybean Meal: On Wednesday, CBOT soybeans remained flat. The market is optimistic about the demand outlook and is concerned about the trade situation and the US government shutdown. Domestically, soybean meal is oscillating narrowly, and the funds are cautious. There are many rumors about US soybean purchases, and the results of the Sino - US leaders' talks should be closely watched. The spot price of soybean meal has followed the increase, but the market trading is sluggish [1]. - Oils and Fats: On Wednesday, BMD palm oil fell for the fourth consecutive day and the second consecutive month, following the decline of the surrounding markets. The expected over - production in Indonesia has also depressed the market. Domestically, palm oil continued to decline and stopped falling at night. Soybean oil and rapeseed oil are relatively strong. Attention should be paid to the implementation of US and Indonesian biodiesel policies and the tariff adjustments between the US and Malaysia [1]. - Eggs: On Wednesday, the egg futures continued to rebound, with the main 2512 contract rising 2.13%. The spot price of eggs continued to decline slightly. There is a game between short - term supply pressure and supply improvement, and the rebound height is expected to be limited. The future egg price trend depends on the changes in the farmers' willingness to replenish and cull the flocks [1]. - Pigs: On Wednesday, the main 2601 contract of live pigs closed with a small positive line close to a doji, and the futures price was blocked from rising and moved down in the range. The spot prices in production and sales areas are running strongly, but the price increase in Shandong and Hebei has slowed down. The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs expects the prices of live pigs and pork to stop falling and rebound in the fourth quarter. However, due to the continuous policy of controlling the breeding sows and reducing the inventory and the supply pressure, it is expected that the futures price will return to a slow decline after the rebound [2]. Group 3: Market Information - Brazil's 2025/26 soybean production is expected to be 177 million tons, a 3% increase from the previous year. The export volume is expected to be 111 million tons, basically the same as the previous year. The planting area is expected to reach 48.8 million hectares, a 2% increase from the previous year [3]. - The US government shutdown has lasted for nearly a month, and there seems to be a change. There is a possibility of a compromise on the temporary appropriation bill next week [3]. - The Argentine oilseed workers' union may resume the strike next week as they are still far from reaching a salary agreement with the employers [3]. - Chinese President Xi Jinping will meet with US President Trump in Busan, South Korea on October 30 to exchange views on Sino - US relations and common concerns [3]. - China has made its first purchase of US soybeans this harvest season, and the Chinese Foreign Ministry has not given a specific comment [4]. Group 4: Variety Spreads 4.1 Contract Spreads - The spreads include those of corn 1 - 5, corn starch 1 - 5, soybeans 1 - 5, soybean meal 1 - 5, soybean oil 1 - 5, palm oil 1 - 5, eggs 1 - 5, and live pigs 1 - 5 [6][7][11][15] 4.2 Contract Basis - The basis includes those of corn, corn starch, soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, palm oil, eggs, and live pigs [14][17][18][23] Group 5: Research Team Members - Wang Na, the director of the agricultural product research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, has won many awards and has rich experience in leading the team [27]. - Hou Xueling, a soybean analyst at Everbright Futures, has more than ten years of futures experience and has won many awards [27]. - Kong Hailan, a researcher of eggs and live pigs at Everbright Futures Research Institute, has participated in many research projects and has been interviewed by many media [27].